Birmingham vs Preston

ChampionshipRegular Season - 44

Birmingham

#10 · Championship

DLLLD

2 - 1

St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham

Referee: B. Toner

Preston

#16 · Championship

LDDWL

53.9%

Home Win

21.7%

Draw

24.4%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Birmingham to Win

Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Preston make Birmingham the value pick here.

Moneyline

1.73

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Birmingham to Win. Our model calculates a 53.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Birmingham will face Preston in the Championship at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Birmingham has a 53.9% probability of winning this match. Preston has a 24.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.7%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Both teams average a combined 1.7 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

1 — Birmingham53.9%1.69

✓ OUR PICK

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.551.3%2.04

Both Teams to Score

Yes51%1.72

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

7.03

14.3%

1-0

7.24

13.9%

2-1

7.50

13.4%

2-0

8.13

12.3%

0-0

11.63

8.7%

3-1

12.18

8.3%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.69	Draw 3.87	Away 4.66
O/U 2.5	Over 1.76	Under 2.04
O/U 1.5	Over 1.23	Under 3.89
O/U 3.5	Over 2.86	Under 1.39
BTTS	Yes 1.72	No 2.03
Double Chance	1X 1.17	12 1.22	X2 2.14

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

91.5%

Over 1.5 Goals

75.9%

Over 2.5 Goals

48.7%

Over 3.5 Goals

32.8%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Championship Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Coventry	44	26	11	7	90	44	46	89	WDDDW
2	Millwall	45	23	11	11	61	48	13	80	WWDLW
3	Ipswich	43	22	13	8	75	45	30	79	WDLWW
4	Southampton	44	21	13	10	77	53	24	76	DWWWW
5	Middlesbrough	44	21	13	10	65	44	21	76	WDLDL
6	Wrexham	44	19	13	12	66	60	6	70	WWLLD
10	Birmingham	44	16	12	16	54	54	0	60	WDWLL
16	Preston	44	14	15	15	51	57	-6	57	LLWDD
22	Oxford United	44	10	14	20	41	56	-15	44	LLWDD
23	Leicester	45	11	16	18	56	67	-11	43	DLLDD
24	Sheffield Wednesday	44	1	12	31	26	84	-58	-3	LDDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season

BirminghamPreston

0.87Goals p.g.0.8

1.13Goals conceded p.g.1.87

20%Clean sheets7%

27%Win rate13%

2Avg goals in match2.67

Recent Results

BirminghamLAST MATCHES

18 AprHull City1–1BirminghamChampionship

06 AprIpswich2–1BirminghamChampionship

03 AprBirmingham0–1BlackburnChampionship

21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship

14 MarBirmingham1–1Sheffield UtdChampionship

11 MarBirmingham1–0QPRChampionship

4Win27%

5Draw33%

6Lost40%

LAST MATCHESPreston

18 AprPreston0–2West BromChampionship

06 AprPreston1–1QPRChampionship

03 AprLeicester2–2PrestonChampionship

20 MarPreston3–1Stoke CityChampionship

14 MarNorwich2–0PrestonChampionship

11 MarCoventry3–0PrestonChampionship

2Win13%

5Draw33%

8Lost53%

Lineups

Confirmed

Birmingham4-2-3-1Confirmed

5Phil NeumannDEF

2Ethan LairdDEF

31Kai WagnerDEF

4Christoph KlarerDEF

29August PriskeFWD

25James BeadleGK

17Ibrahim OsmanMID

28Jay StansfieldMID

8Seung-Ho PaikMID

23Carlos VicenteMID

24Tomoki IwataMID

Substitutes

6Jack RobinsonDEF

20Alex CochraneDEF

26Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF

10Demarai GrayFWD

33Marvin DuckschFWD

21Ryan AllsopGK

7Tommy DoyleMID

14Jhon SolísMID

16Patrick RobertsMID

Preston3-5-2Confirmed

6Liam LindsayDEF

16Andrew HughesDEF

42Odeluga OffiahDEF

28Milutin OsmajićFWD

17Lewis DobbinFWD

1Daniel IversenGK

44Brad PottsMID

2Pol ValentínMID

3Andrija VukcevicMID

21Alfie DevineMID

15Jordan ThompsonMID

Substitutes

26Thierry SmallDEF

14Jordan StoreyDEF

24Michael SmithFWD

9Daniel JebbisonFWD

22Miloš LukovićFWD

13David CornellGK

12Jack WaltonGK

23Andrew MoranMID

11Robbie BradyMID

Unavailable Players

7 players

Birmingham3

✕B. Osayi-Samuel

QuestionableInjury

✕K. Furuhashi

Missing FixtureInactive

✕L. Buchanan

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Preston4

✕A. McCann

Missing FixtureInjury

✕B. Whiteman

Missing FixtureInjury

✕C. Lang

Missing FixtureHamstring Injury

✕R. Brady

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets

Birmingham Win1.69 (53.9%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.76 (48.7%)

Under 2.5 Goals2.04 (51.3%)

Both Teams Score1.72 (51%)

BTTS No2.03 (49%)

●Speculative

Draw3.87 (21.7%)

Preston Win4.66 (24.4%)