Birmingham vs Bristol City
Birmingham
#10 · Championship
DLLLD
2 - 1
St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham
Referee: R. Jones
Bristol City
#12 · Championship
LWWLD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 52.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Birmingham will face Bristol City in the Championship at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Birmingham has a 50.1% probability of winning this match. Bristol City has a 28% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 1.9 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Birmingham50.1%1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.3%2.08
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.3%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.85
14.6%
1-0
7.39
13.6%
2-1
7.57
13.3%
2-0
8.39
12%
0-0
11.68
8.7%
3-1
12.14
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.73 | Draw 3.80 | Away 4.50 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.73 | Under 2.08 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 4.00 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.78 | Under 1.41 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.69 | No 2.07 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.18 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.08 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.6%
Over 1.5 Goals76.6%
Over 2.5 Goals49.7%
Over 3.5 Goals33.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 44 | 26 | 11 | 7 | 90 | 44 | 46 | 89 | WDDDW |
| 2 |  Millwall | 45 | 23 | 11 | 11 | 61 | 48 | 13 | 80 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Ipswich | 43 | 22 | 13 | 8 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 79 | WDLWW |
| 4 |  Southampton | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 77 | 53 | 24 | 76 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 44 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 76 | WDLDL |
| 6 |  Wrexham | 44 | 19 | 13 | 12 | 66 | 60 | 6 | 70 | WWLLD |
| 10 | Birmingham | 44 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 54 | 54 | 0 | 60 | WDWLL |
| 12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 56 | 57 | -1 | 59 | DLDWW |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 44 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 44 | LLWDD |
| 23 |  Leicester | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 43 | DLLDD |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 44 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 26 | 84 | -58 | -3 | LDDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBirminghamBristol City
0.87Goals p.g.1.07
1.13Goals conceded p.g.1.67
20%Clean sheets13%
27%Win rate33%
2Avg goals in match2.73
Recent Results
BirminghamLAST MATCHES
18 AprHull City1–1BirminghamChampionship
06 AprIpswich2–1BirminghamChampionship
03 AprBirmingham0–1BlackburnChampionship
21 MarDerby1–0BirminghamChampionship
14 MarBirmingham1–1Sheffield UtdChampionship
11 MarBirmingham1–0QPRChampionship
4Win27%
5Draw33%
6Lost40%
LAST MATCHESBristol City
18 AprBristol City2–4NorwichChampionship
06 AprBristol City1–0Sheffield UtdChampionship
03 AprCharlton1–2Bristol CityChampionship
21 MarBristol City0–1West BromChampionship
14 MarMiddlesbrough1–1Bristol CityChampionship
10 MarLeicester2–0Bristol CityChampionship
5Win33%
2Draw13%
8Lost53%
Lineups
ConfirmedBirmingham4-2-3-1Confirmed
31Kai WagnerDEF
4Christoph KlarerDEF
5Phil NeumannDEF
26Bright Osayi-SamuelDEF
29August PriskeFWD
25James BeadleGK
23Carlos VicenteMID
8Seung-Ho PaikMID
14Jhon SolísMID
10Demarai GrayMID
28Jay StansfieldMID
Substitutes
2Ethan LairdDEF
6Jack RobinsonDEF
20Alex CochraneDEF
33Marvin DuckschFWD
21Ryan AllsopGK
27Kanya FujimotoMID
16Patrick RobertsMID
24Tomoki IwataMID
7Tommy DoyleMID
Bristol City4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Cameron PringDEF
38Noah EileDEF
2Ross McCrorieDEF
21Neto BorgesDEF
11Delano BurgzorgFWD
23Radek VitekGK
10Scott TwineMID
12Jason KnightMID
40Sam MorsyMID
20Sam BellMID
14Tomi HorvatMID
Substitutes
19George TannerDEF
24Seb NaylorDEF
16Robert DickieDEF
30Sinclair ArmstrongFWD
18Emil Riis JacobsenFWD
32Lewis ThomasGK
17Mark SykesMID
44George EarthyMID
4Adam RandellMID
Unavailable Players
7 playersBirmingham3
I. Osman
QuestionableInjury
K. Furuhashi
Missing FixtureInactive
L. Buchanan
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Bristol City4
J. Williams
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
L. McNally
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Bird
Missing FixtureInjury
R. Atkinson
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Birmingham Win1.73 (50.1%)
Bristol City Win4.50 (28%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.73 (49.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.08 (50.3%)
Both Teams Score1.69 (52.3%)
BTTS No2.07 (47.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.80 (22%)
