AS Roma vs Atalanta
AS Roma
#6 · Serie A
DWLWL
1 - 1
Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee: M. Marcenaro
Atalanta
#7 · Serie A
DWWLD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.67 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 58.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , AS Roma will face Atalanta in the Serie A at Stadio Olimpico.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that AS Roma has a 42.9% probability of winning this match. Atalanta has a 33.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.8%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — AS Roma42.9%2.45
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.8%1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.8%1.67
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.11
16.4%
1-0
8.36
12%
2-1
8.79
11.4%
0-1
9.19
11%
1-2
9.79
10.3%
0-0
10.01
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.45 | Draw 3.30 | Away 2.90 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.89 | Under 1.93 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.27 | Under 3.59 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.14 | Under 1.34 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.67 | No 2.13 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.41 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.53 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.5%
Over 1.5 Goals73.8%
Over 2.5 Goals54.8%
Over 3.5 Goals30%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 33 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 78 | 29 | 49 | 78 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Napoli | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 69 | WLDWW |
| 3 |  AC Milan | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 66 | WLLWL |
| 4 |  Juventus | 33 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 29 | 28 | 63 | WWWDW |
| 5 |  Como | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 28 | 29 | 58 | LLDWW |
| 6 | AS Roma | 33 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 17 | 58 | DWLWL |
| 7 | Atalanta | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 45 | 29 | 16 | 54 | DLWWD |
| 18 |  Lecce | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 28 | DLLLL |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 18 | LLLLL |
| 20 |  Pisa | 33 | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 18 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAS RomaAtalanta
1.71Goals p.g.1.73
1.35Goals conceded p.g.1.53
35%Clean sheets27%
35%Win rate47%
3.06Avg goals in match3.27
Recent Results
AS RomaLAST MATCHES
18 AprAS Roma1–1AtalantaSerie A
10 AprAS Roma3–0PisaSerie A
05 AprInter5–2AS RomaSerie A
22 MarAS Roma1–0LecceSerie A
19 MarAS Roma3–4BolognaUEFA Europa League
15 MarComo2–1AS RomaSerie A
6Win35%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESAtalanta
18 AprAS Roma1–1AtalantaSerie A
06 AprLecce0–3AtalantaSerie A
22 MarAtalanta1–0Hellas VeronaSerie A
18 MarBayern München4–1AtalantaUEFA Champions League
14 MarInter1–1AtalantaSerie A
10 MarAtalanta1–6Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
7Win47%
4Draw27%
4Lost27%
Lineups
ConfirmedAS Roma3-4-2-1Confirmed
23Gianluca ManciniDEF
5Evan NdickaDEF
22Mario HermosoDEF
14Donyell MalenFWD
92Stephan El ShaarawyFWD
18Matías SouléFWD
99Mile SvilarGK
4Bryan CristanteMID
8Neil El AynaouiMID
19Zeki ÇelikMID
2Devyne RenschMID
Substitutes
12Konstantinos TsimikasDEF
24Jan ZiółkowskiDEF
87Daniele GhilardiDEF
3AngeliñoDEF
97Bryan ZaragozaFWD
20Lorenzo VenturinoFWD
78Robinio VazFWD
70Giorgio De MarziGK
95Pierluigi GolliniGK
61Niccolò PisilliMID
Atalanta3-4-2-1Confirmed
23Sead KolasinacDEF
42Giorgio ScalviniDEF
19Berat DjimsitiDEF
90Nikola KrstovićFWD
18Giacomo RaspadoriFWD
17Charles De KetelaereFWD
29Marco CarnesecchiGK
77Davide ZappacostaMID
15Marten de RoonMID
16Raoul BellanovaMID
13ÉdersonMID
Substitutes
5Mitchel BakkerDEF
69Honest AhanorDEF
3Odilon KossounouDEF
9Gianluca ScamaccaFWD
7Kamaldeen SulemanaFWD
57Marco SportielloGK
8Mario PašalićMID
6Yunus MusahMID
59Nicola ZalewskiMID
10Lazar SamardžićMID
Unavailable Players
10 playersAS Roma8
A. Dovbyk
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
E. Bove
Missing Fixtureheart problems
E. Ferguson
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
G. Mancini
QuestionableInjury
L. Pellegrini
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
M. Kone
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
P. Dybala
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Wesley Franca
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Atalanta2
I. Hien
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
K. Sulemana
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.67 (58.8%)
Value Bets
AS Roma Win2.45 (42.9%)
Atalanta Win2.90 (33.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.89 (54.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.93 (45.2%)
BTTS No2.13 (41.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.30 (23.8%)
