Al Najma vs Al Taawon
Al Najma
#18 · Pro League
LWLLL
1 - 2
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah
Al Taawon
#5 · Pro League
DDWDD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.68
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 60.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Al Najma will face Al Taawon in the Pro League at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Al Najma has a 23.4% probability of winning this match. Al Taawon has a 56.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Al Taawon are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Al Taawon sit 5th in the table, 13 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — Al Taawon56.8%1.55
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.560.4%1.58
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.3%1.62
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
7.49
13.5%
1-1
7.64
13.2%
0-1
8.04
12.5%
0-2
8.07
12.4%
1-3
10.66
9.4%
0-3
11.20
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.98 | Draw 4.06 | Away 1.55 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.58 | Under 2.30 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.65 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.42 | Under 1.50 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.62 | No 2.14 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.30 | 12 1.19 | X2 1.14 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.4%
Over 1.5 Goals79.9%
Over 2.5 Goals60.4%
Over 3.5 Goals38.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Nassr | 29 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 79 | 21 | 58 | 76 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 28 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 75 | 25 | 50 | 68 | WDWWW |
| 3 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 55 | 20 | 35 | 66 | DWLWW |
| 4 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 67 | 31 | 36 | 62 | DDLWW |
| 5 | Al Taawon | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 38 | 14 | 49 | WLDDW |
| 6 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 45 | LWLLW |
| 16 |  Al Riyadh | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 23 | LWDWL |
| 17 |  Al Okhdood | 29 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 23 | 61 | -38 | 16 | LLWLL |
| 18 | Al Najma | 29 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 69 | -41 | 11 | LWLLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAl NajmaAl Taawon
0.92Goals p.g.1.27
2.77Goals conceded p.g.1.45
0%Clean sheets9%
15%Win rate18%
3.69Avg goals in match2.73
Recent Results
Al NajmaLAST MATCHES
23 AprAl Najma1–2Al TaawonPro League
11 AprAl Najma2–1NEOMPro League
03 AprAl-Nassr5–2Al NajmaPro League
12 MarAl Najma1–3DamacPro League
06 MarAl-Hilal Saudi FC4–0Al NajmaPro League
28 FebAl Najma1–3Al OkhdoodPro League
2Win15%
1Draw8%
10Lost77%
LAST MATCHESAl Taawon
04 AprAl-Hilal Saudi FC2–2Al TaawonPro League
12 MarNEOM2–2Al TaawonPro League
06 MarAl Taawon3–2Al-FatehPro League
28 FebAl-Qadisiyah FC1–1Al TaawonPro League
24 FebAl Taawon1–1Al-Hilal Saudi FCPro League
20 FebAl Taawon2–3Al-FayhaPro League
2Win18%
5Draw45%
4Lost36%
Lineups
ConfirmedAl Najma4-4-2Confirmed
3Samir CaetanoDEF
24Abdullah Al-HawsawiDEF
2Vitor VargasDEF
33Mohammed Al FatilDEF
7LázaroFWD
70Felippe CardosoFWD
1Victor BragaGK
98Bilal BoutobbaMID
18Abdulaziz Al HarabiMID
80Nabil DongaMID
16GugaMID
Substitutes
66Sultan AlessaDEF
4Nasser Al HaleelDEF
27Khalid AlsubaieDEF
77Hisham Al-DubaisFWD
22Khalid Al MuqiatybGK
8Abdulelah AlshamaryMID
6Khalid Al-ShammariMID
11Majed DawranMID
23Rakan Al-TulayhiMID
Al Taawon4-3-3Confirmed
87Qasim LajamiDEF
3Andrei GirottoDEF
5Mohammed MahzariDEF
55Mohammed Al DossariDEF
7Mohammed Al-KuwaykibiFWD
10Roger MartinezFWD
88Marin PetkovFWD
1MailsonGK
18Ashraf El MahdiouiMID
8FlávioMID
11Angelo FulginiMID
Substitutes
2Meshal AlaeliDEF
66Bassam Al-HurayjiDEF
15Mohammed Hamad AlqahtaniFWD
97Fahad Ayed Al-RashidiFWD
20BielFWD
74Saif Rashad MohamedFWD
13Abdulquddus AtiahGK
29Ahmed BahusaynMID
77Abduleallah HawsawiMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl Najma
No reported absences
Al Taawon
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Al Taawon Win1.55 (56.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.58 (60.4%)
Both Teams Score1.62 (58.3%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.30 (39.6%)
BTTS No2.14 (41.7%)
Speculative
Al Najma Win4.98 (23.4%)
Draw4.06 (19.8%)
