Akhmat vs Baltika
Akhmat
#9 · Premier League
LDLWD
1 - 1
Akhmat-Arena, Groznyj
Referee: E. Kukulyak
Baltika
#4 · Premier League
WDDDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.72 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Akhmat will face Baltika in the Premier League at Akhmat-Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Akhmat has a 34.1% probability of winning this match. Baltika has a 40.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Baltika are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Baltika have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
- Akhmat have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
- Baltika have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Baltika40.9%2.38
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.3%1.72
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51%1.86
Based on avg. implied odds from 4 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.72
17.5%
0-1
6.57
15.2%
0-0
7.77
12.9%
1-0
7.94
12.6%
1-2
8.96
11.2%
0-2
10.30
9.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.18 | Draw 3.22 | Away 2.38 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.21 | Under 1.72 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.37 | Under 2.97 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.95 | Under 1.23 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.62 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.35 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals87.6%
Over 1.5 Goals68.4%
Over 2.5 Goals42.7%
Over 3.5 Goals23.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zenit | 26 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 45 | 17 | 28 | 56 | DWDWW |
| 2 |  FC Krasnodar | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 54 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Lokomotiv | 26 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 51 | 33 | 18 | 49 | DWDLW |
| 4 | Baltika | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 21 | 45 | DDDWW |
| 5 |  Spartak Moscow | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 45 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  CSKA Moscow | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 44 | DDLWW |
| 9 | Akhmat | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 31 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Krylia Sovetov | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 47 | -20 | 23 | LDDLD |
| 15 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 26 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 22 | LDDLL |
| 16 |  FC Sochi | 26 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 18 | WWWLL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAkhmatBaltika
1.53Goals p.g.1.31
1.07Goals conceded p.g.0.75
40%Clean sheets44%
47%Win rate44%
2.6Avg goals in match2.06
Recent Results
AkhmatLAST MATCHES
19 AprSpartak Moscow3–1AkhmatPremier League
11 AprKrylia Sovetov2–2AkhmatPremier League
04 AprAkhmat0–1FC KrasnodarPremier League
21 MarAkhmat1–0FC RostovPremier League
15 MarAkron1–1AkhmatPremier League
09 MarLokomotiv2–2AkhmatPremier League
7Win47%
4Draw27%
4Lost27%
LAST MATCHESBaltika
23 AprAkhmat0–1BaltikaPremier League
19 AprFC Krasnodar2–2BaltikaPremier League
11 AprBaltika2–2Nizhny NovgorodPremier League
05 AprDinamo Makhachkala2–2BaltikaPremier League
21 MarBaltika4–0FC SochiPremier League
14 MarBaltika1–0CSKA MoscowPremier League
7Win44%
6Draw38%
2Lost13%
Lineups
ConfirmedAkhmat4-2-3-1Confirmed
90Ousmane N’DongDEF
5Klisman CakeDEF
82Daniil KhlusevichDEF
8Miroslav BogosavacDEF
77Georgi MelkadzeFWD
1Vadim UlyanovGK
4Turpal-Ali IbishevMID
11Ismael SilvaMID
7Lechi SadulaevMID
17Egas CacinturaMID
20Maksim SamorodovMID
Substitutes
2Dzhamalutdin AbdulkadyrovDEF
40Rizvan UtsievDEF
22Mehdi ZareDEF
13Mohamed KonatéFWD
9Brian MansillaFWD
72Yakhya MagomedovGK
88Giorgi SheliaGK
27Akhmed DavlitgereevMID
10Rifat ZhemaletdinovMID
23Galymzhan KenzhebekMID
19Sergey PryakhinMID
37Papa Amady GadioMID
Baltika3-4-3Confirmed
25Aleksandr FilinDEF
16Kevin AndradeDEF
2Sergey VaratynovDEF
22Nikolay TitkovFWD
73Maksim PetrovFWD
18Derik LacerdaFWD
81Ivan KukushkinGK
8Andrey MendelMID
23Mingiyan BeveevMID
10Ilya PetrovMID
4Nathan GassamaMID
Substitutes
26Ivan BelikovDEF
21Eduardo AndersonDEF
68Mikhail RyadnoDEF
69Irakliy ManelovFWD
91Brayan GilFWD
15Tenton YenneFWD
44Egor LyubakovGK
36Andrey TsitsilinGK
14Stefan KovačMID
11Yuriy KovalevMID
42Vladislav PospelovMID
5Aymane MouridMID
Unavailable Players
5 playersAkhmat1
M. Sidorov
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Baltika4
B. Gil
Missing FixtureInactive
C. Offor
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
E. Civic
Missing FixtureInactive
T. Yenne
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.72 (57.3%)
Value Bets
Akhmat Win3.18 (34.1%)
Draw3.22 (25%)
Baltika Win2.38 (40.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.21 (42.7%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (49%)
BTTS No1.86 (51%)
