Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne Victory
Western Sydney Wanderers
#12 · A-League
LLLDL
0 - 2
CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Referee: D. Elder
Melbourne Victory
#6 · A-League
LWWDD
★ OUR PICK
Melbourne Victory to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over Western Sydney Wanderers make Melbourne Victory the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.04
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.96 for Melbourne Victory to Win. Our model calculates a 50.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Western Sydney Wanderers will face Melbourne Victory in the A-League at CommBank Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Western Sydney Wanderers has a 28.5% probability of winning this match. Melbourne Victory has a 50.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Melbourne Victory average 2.0 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Melbourne Victory50.5%1.96
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564.5%1.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.8%1.41
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.67
13.1%
1-2
8.25
12.2%
2-2
10.28
9.8%
0-1
10.96
9.2%
2-1
11.10
9.2%
0-2
11.80
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.39 | Draw 3.84 | Away 1.96 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.43 | Under 2.64 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.12 | Under 5.61 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.12 | Under 1.70 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.41 | No 2.70 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.80 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals83.3%
Over 2.5 Goals64.5%
Over 3.5 Goals44.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 45 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Auckland | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 41 | LDDLW |
| 3 |  Adelaide United | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 40 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  Sydney | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 38 | DWDLL |
| 5 |  Melbourne City | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 6 | Melbourne Victory | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 37 | DDLWW |
| 10 |  Perth Glory | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 | DWDDL |
| 11 |  Brisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 | LDDLD |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 21 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonWestern Sydney WanderersMelbourne Victory
1.46Goals p.g.2
1.92Goals conceded p.g.1.23
23%Clean sheets8%
23%Win rate46%
3.38Avg goals in match3.23
Recent Results
Western Sydney WanderersLAST MATCHES
18 AprWellington Phoenix2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
04 AprMelbourne City3–0Western Sydney WanderersA-League
20 MarWestern Sydney Wanderers2–4Adelaide UnitedA-League
13 MarBrisbane Roar2–2Western Sydney WanderersA-League
07 MarNewcastle Jets2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
28 FebMacarthur0–4Western Sydney WanderersA-League
3Win23%
3Draw23%
7Lost54%
LAST MATCHESMelbourne Victory
05 AprMelbourne Victory0–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
21 MarMelbourne Victory4–1Central Coast MarinersA-League
15 MarMelbourne Victory4–1MacarthurA-League
07 MarSydney2–2Melbourne VictoryA-League
27 FebMelbourne Victory1–1Adelaide UnitedA-League
21 FebMelbourne City1–3Melbourne VictoryA-League
6Win46%
3Draw23%
4Lost31%
Lineups
ConfirmedWestern Sydney Wanderers4-4-2Confirmed
5Dylan SciclunaDEF
24Nathan BarrieDEF
22Anthony PantazopoulosDEF
3Alex GersbachDEF
26Brandon BorrelloFWD
23Bozhidar KraevFWD
30Jordan HolmesGK
25Josh BrillanteMID
7Ryan FraserMID
52Atiya WaragaMID
32Angus ThurgateMID
Substitutes
19Ruon TongyikDEF
38Jai RoseFWD
17Jarrod CarluccioFWD
39Awan LualFWD
20Lawrence ThomasGK
21Aydan HammondMID
8Steven UgarkovicMID
Melbourne Victory4-2-3-1Confirmed
15Sebastian EspositoDEF
2Jason DavidsonDEF
21Roderick MirandaDEF
22Joshua RawlinsDEF
44Charles NdukaFWD
40Jack WarshawskyGK
17Nishan VelupillayMID
14Matthew GrimaldiMID
11ClarismarioMID
10Denis GenreauMID
27Louis D'ArrigoMID
Substitutes
3Adama TraoreDEF
5Brendan HamillDEF
9Nikolaos VergosFWD
23Keegan JelacicFWD
25Jack DuncanGK
8Jordi ValadonMID
64Juan MataMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersWestern Sydney Wanderers
No reported absences
Melbourne Victory
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.43 (64.5%)
Both Teams Score1.41 (64.8%)
Value Bets
Western Sydney Wanderers Win3.39 (28.5%)
Melbourne Victory Win1.96 (50.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.64 (35.5%)
BTTS No2.70 (35.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.84 (21%)