Wellington Phoenix vs Western Sydney Wanderers
Wellington Phoenix
#7 · A-League
WWWWD
2 - 1
Sky Stadium, Wellington
Western Sydney Wanderers
#12 · A-League
LLLDL
★ OUR PICK
Wellington Phoenix to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Western Sydney Wanderers make Wellington Phoenix the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.43
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 2.29 (implied 43.6%) for Wellington Phoenix to Win. Our model calculates a 51.3% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.95. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Wellington Phoenix will face Western Sydney Wanderers in the A-League at Sky Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Wellington Phoenix has a 51.3% probability of winning this match. Western Sydney Wanderers has a 27.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Wellington Phoenix are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Wellington Phoenix51.3%2.29
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563.3%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.8%1.43
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.56
13.4%
2-1
8.71
11.6%
1-2
9.64
10.5%
2-2
10.41
9.7%
1-0
11.53
8.8%
0-1
12.70
8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.29 | Draw 3.82 | Away 2.71 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.47 | Under 2.54 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.29 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.21 | Under 1.64 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.43 | No 2.65 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.42 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.61 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.6%
Over 1.5 Goals82.3%
Over 2.5 Goals63.3%
Over 3.5 Goals42.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 45 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Auckland | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 41 | LDDLW |
| 3 |  Adelaide United | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 40 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  Sydney | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 38 | DWDLL |
| 5 |  Melbourne City | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 6 |  Melbourne Victory | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 37 | DDLWW |
| 7 | Wellington Phoenix | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 33 | WLWWW |
| 10 |  Perth Glory | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 | DWDDL |
| 11 |  Brisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 | LDDLD |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 21 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonWellington PhoenixWestern Sydney Wanderers
1.57Goals p.g.1.46
1.57Goals conceded p.g.1.92
29%Clean sheets23%
43%Win rate23%
3.14Avg goals in match3.38
Recent Results
Wellington PhoenixLAST MATCHES
18 AprWellington Phoenix2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
05 AprMelbourne Victory0–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
21 MarBrisbane Roar1–2Wellington PhoenixA-League
14 MarWellington Phoenix2–0Perth GloryA-League
06 MarAdelaide United1–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
01 MarWellington Phoenix0–1SydneyA-League
6Win43%
4Draw29%
4Lost29%
LAST MATCHESWestern Sydney Wanderers
18 AprWellington Phoenix2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
04 AprMelbourne City3–0Western Sydney WanderersA-League
20 MarWestern Sydney Wanderers2–4Adelaide UnitedA-League
13 MarBrisbane Roar2–2Western Sydney WanderersA-League
07 MarNewcastle Jets2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
28 FebMacarthur0–4Western Sydney WanderersA-League
3Win23%
3Draw23%
7Lost54%
Lineups
ConfirmedWellington Phoenix5-3-2Confirmed
18Lukas Kelly-HealdDEF
28Bill TuilomaDEF
3Corban PiperDEF
6Tim PayneDEF
15Isaac HughesDEF
20Ramy NajjarineFWD
7Ifeanyi EzeFWD
1Joshua OluwayemiGK
8Paulo RetreMID
14Alex RuferMID
25Kazuki NagasawaMID
Substitutes
12Dan EdwardsDEF
4Manjrekar JamesDEF
27Matthew SheridanDEF
11Carlo ArmientoFWD
29Luke Brooke-SmithFWD
30Alby Kelly-HealdGK
16Sander Erik KartumMID
Western Sydney Wanderers4-2-3-1Confirmed
24Nathan BarrieDEF
3Alex GersbachDEF
22Anthony PantazopoulosDEF
5Dylan SciclunaDEF
26Brandon BorrelloFWD
30Jordan HolmesGK
23Bozhidar KraevMID
7Ryan FraserMID
8Steven UgarkovicMID
32Angus ThurgateMID
38Jai RoseMID
Substitutes
19Ruon TongyikDEF
39Awan LualFWD
11Hiroshi IbusukiFWD
52Atiya WaragaFWD
20Lawrence ThomasGK
53Oscar MorrisonMID
25Josh BrillanteMID
Unavailable Players
4 playersWellington Phoenix2
N. Walker
Missing FixtureInactive
S. Singh
Missing FixtureInactive
Western Sydney Wanderers2
A. Simmons
Missing FixtureInactive
J. Farrell
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.47 (63.3%)
Both Teams Score1.43 (64.8%)
Value Bets
Wellington Phoenix Win2.29 (51.3%)
Western Sydney Wanderers Win2.71 (27.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.54 (36.7%)
BTTS No2.65 (35.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.82 (21.2%)