Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe
Velez Sarsfield
#3 · Liga Profesional Argentina
DWLLW
2 - 2
Union Santa Fe
#14 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LWWLD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.55
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.50 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 62.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Velez Sarsfield will face Union Santa Fe in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Velez Sarsfield has a 46.5% probability of winning this match. Union Santa Fe has a 27.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in the table, 11 places above their opponents
- Velez Sarsfield boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per game
- Velez Sarsfield have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
- Union Santa Fe have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Velez Sarsfield46.5%2.19
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.562.2%1.50
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No55.1%1.68
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.51
18.2%
1-1
5.76
17.4%
0-0
6.57
15.3%
0-1
7.40
13.6%
2-0
8.88
11.3%
2-1
9.05
11.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.19 | Draw 3.01 | Away 3.52 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.53 | Under 1.50 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.49 | Under 2.50 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 5.04 | Under 1.15 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.08 | No 1.68 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.28 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.65 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.1%
Over 1.5 Goals62.7%
Over 2.5 Goals37.8%
Over 3.5 Goals18.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 14 | Union Santa Fe | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | LLWLD | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonVelez SarsfieldUnion Santa Fe
1.2Goals p.g.1.47
0.8Goals conceded p.g.1
40%Clean sheets40%
47%Win rate40%
2Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
Velez SarsfieldLAST MATCHES
20 AprSan Lorenzo0–0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
07 AprVelez Sarsfield4–1Deportivo ArmenioCopa Argentina
03 AprGimnasia M.3–2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
21 MarVelez Sarsfield0–1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
14 MarPlatense0–2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
10 MarTigre1–1Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
7Win47%
5Draw33%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESUnion Santa Fe
11 AprEstudiantes L.P.2–1Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
03 AprUnion Santa Fe2–0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
31 MarUnion Santa Fe2–0AgropecuarioCopa Argentina
21 MarDefensa Y Justicia2–0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
16 MarUnion Santa Fe1–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
10 MarIndependiente4–4Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
6Win40%
5Draw33%
4Lost27%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVelez Sarsfield
No reported absences
Union Santa Fe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.50 (62.2%)
BTTS No1.68 (55.1%)
Value Bets
Velez Sarsfield Win2.19 (46.5%)
Draw3.01 (25.9%)
Union Santa Fe Win3.52 (27.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.53 (37.8%)
Both Teams Score2.08 (44.9%)
