Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
#10 · Serie A
WWLDD
2 - 1
Referee: S. Sampaio
Sao Paulo
#4 · Serie A
WLWLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.72
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Vasco DA Gama will face Sao Paulo in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Vasco DA Gama has a 43.3% probability of winning this match. Sao Paulo has a 32% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Sao Paulo have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Sao Paulo have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Vasco DA Gama43.3%2.22
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.2%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.2%1.87
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.79
17.3%
1-0
6.57
15.3%
0-0
8.21
12.2%
0-1
8.31
12.1%
2-1
8.52
11.8%
2-0
9.82
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.22 | Draw 3.22 | Away 3.30 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.15 | Under 1.69 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.36 | Under 3.03 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.94 | Under 1.23 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.87 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.32 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.64 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.7%
Over 1.5 Goals69%
Over 2.5 Goals42.8%
Over 3.5 Goals23.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 10 | Vasco DA Gama | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 | WDLDW |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA GamaSao Paulo
1.25Goals p.g.1.45
1.15Goals conceded p.g.0.8
20%Clean sheets35%
30%Win rate65%
2.4Avg goals in match2.25
Recent Results
Vasco DA GamaLAST MATCHES
22 AprPaysandu0–2Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
15 AprVasco DA Gama1–2A. ItalianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprRemo1–1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
07 AprBarracas Central0–0Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprVasco DA Gama1–2BotafogoSerie A
6Win30%
8Draw40%
6Lost30%
LAST MATCHESSao Paulo
21 AprSao Paulo1–0JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
14 AprSao Paulo2–0O'HigginsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprVitoria2–0Sao PauloSerie A
08 AprBoston River0–1Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
04 AprSao Paulo4–1CruzeiroSerie A
13Win65%
2Draw10%
5Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedVasco DA Gama4-3-3Confirmed
30Robert RenanDEF
96Paulo HenriqueDEF
46Carlos CuestaDEF
66CuiabanoDEF
11Andrés GómezFWD
7DavidFWD
10Johan RojasFWD
1Léo JardimGK
23Thiago MendesMID
3Tchê TchêMID
88Cauan BarrosMID
Substitutes
43Lucas FreitasDEF
2Puma RodríguezDEF
6Lucas PitonDEF
9Matheus FrançaFWD
18Marino HinestrozaFWD
28AdsonFWD
77Claudio SpinelliFWD
20BrennerFWD
13Daniel FuzatoGK
17Nuno MoreiraMID
98JPMID
25Hugo MouraMID
Sao Paulo4-2-3-1Confirmed
21Cédric SoaresDEF
13Enzo DíazDEF
35SabinoDEF
28Alan FrancoDEF
9Jonathan CalleriFWD
23RafaelGK
16Damián BobadillaMID
94DanielzinhoMID
37ArturMID
10LucianoMID
45LuccaMID
Substitutes
4DoriaDEF
40Igor FelisbertoDEF
42MaikDEF
18WendellDEF
54Luis OsorioDEF
17André SilvaFWD
14Gonzalo TapiaFWD
34TetêFWD
31Carlos CoronelGK
30Felipe NegrucciMID
33Luan SantosMID
80CaulyMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersVasco DA Gama4
A. Saldivia
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Cauan Barros
QuestionableInjury
Jair
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Mateus Carvalho
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Sao Paulo7
Djhordney
Missing FixtureInactive
Lucas Moura
Missing FixtureBroken rib
Lucas Ramon
Missing FixtureRed Card
Marcos Antonio
Missing FixtureInjury
Pablo Maia
Missing FixtureInactive
R. Toloi
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Ryan Francisco
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.69 (57.2%)
Value Bets
Vasco DA Gama Win2.22 (43.3%)
Sao Paulo Win3.30 (32%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.15 (42.8%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (48.8%)
BTTS No1.87 (51.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.22 (24.7%)
