Valencia vs Girona
Valencia
#14 · La Liga
DLWLW
2 - 1
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
Referee: A. Ruiz
Girona
#13 · La Liga
DWLWD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.88
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.83 (implied 54.7%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.8% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.82. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Valencia will face Girona in the La Liga at Estadio de Mestalla.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Valencia has a 44% probability of winning this match. Girona has a 31.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Valencia have kept clean sheets in 43% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Valencia44%2.17
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.554.8%1.83
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.8%1.75
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.04
16.6%
1-0
7.22
13.9%
2-1
8.25
12.2%
0-0
9.29
10.8%
0-1
9.37
10.7%
2-0
9.86
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Away 3.45 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.83 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.33 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.40 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.75 | No 1.99 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.31 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.68 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.8%
Over 1.5 Goals71.8%
Over 2.5 Goals45.2%
Over 3.5 Goals27.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 32 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 30 | 55 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 33 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 74 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 62 | DWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 57 | LLLLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 50 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Getafe | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 44 | WLWWL |
| 13 | Girona | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 38 | LDWLW |
| 14 | Valencia | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 | DLLWL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Levante | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 32 | WWLWD |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 28 | DWWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonValenciaGirona
1.36Goals p.g.1.29
1.14Goals conceded p.g.0.86
43%Clean sheets29%
50%Win rate43%
2.5Avg goals in match2.14
Recent Results
ValenciaLAST MATCHES
21 AprMallorca0–0ValenciaLa Liga
05 AprValencia2–3Celta VigoLa Liga
21 MarSevilla0–2ValenciaLa Liga
14 MarOviedo1–0ValenciaLa Liga
08 MarValencia3–2AlavesLa Liga
01 MarValencia1–0OsasunaLa Liga
7Win50%
1Draw7%
6Lost43%
LAST MATCHESGirona
10 AprReal Madrid1–1GironaLa Liga
06 AprGirona1–0VillarrealLa Liga
21 MarOsasuna1–0GironaLa Liga
14 MarGirona3–0Athletic ClubLa Liga
07 MarLevante1–1GironaLa Liga
01 MarGirona1–2Celta VigoLa Liga
6Win43%
5Draw36%
3Lost21%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
14 playersValencia8
B. Santamaria
Missing FixtureStomach Disorder
D. Foulquier
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
E. Comert
Missing FixtureAbdominal strain
J. Agirrezabala
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Copete
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
M. Diakhaby
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
T. Rendall
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
U. Nunez
QuestionableMuscle Injury
Girona6
A. Ruiz
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
D. van de Beek
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Juan Carlos
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. ter Stegen
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Portu
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
V. Vanat
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Valencia Win2.17 (44%)
Girona Win3.45 (31.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.99 (45.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.83 (54.8%)
Both Teams Score1.75 (50.8%)
BTTS No1.99 (49.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.33 (24.4%)
