Toulouse vs Monaco
Toulouse
#12 · Ligue 1
LLWWL
2 - 2
Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
Referee: C. Turpin
Monaco
#7 · Ligue 1
DLWWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 59.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Toulouse will face Monaco in the Ligue 1 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Toulouse has a 29.5% probability of winning this match. Monaco has a 49.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Monaco have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Monaco49.6%1.74
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.558.3%1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes59.3%1.58
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.26
13.8%
1-2
7.55
13.3%
0-1
8.57
11.7%
0-2
9.18
11%
1-3
11.83
8.5%
2-2
12.07
8.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.32 | Draw 3.98 | Away 1.74 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.62 | Under 2.31 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.17 | Under 4.64 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.50 | Under 1.50 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.58 | No 2.28 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.04 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.21 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.8%
Over 1.5 Goals79.8%
Over 2.5 Goals58.3%
Over 3.5 Goals37.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 7 | Monaco | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 50 | DLWWW |
| 12 | Toulouse | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 37 | LLLWW |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonToulouseMonaco
1.36Goals p.g.1.93
1.36Goals conceded p.g.1.33
29%Clean sheets33%
36%Win rate53%
2.71Avg goals in match3.27
Recent Results
ToulouseLAST MATCHES
21 AprLens4–1ToulouseCoupe de France
03 AprParis Saint Germain3–1ToulouseLigue 1
21 MarToulouse1–0LorientLigue 1
15 MarMetz3–4ToulouseLigue 1
07 MarToulouse0–1MarseilleLigue 1
04 MarMarseille2–2ToulouseCoupe de France
5Win36%
3Draw21%
6Lost43%
LAST MATCHESMonaco
19 AprMonaco2–2AuxerreLigue 1
10 AprParis FC4–1MonacoLigue 1
05 AprMonaco2–1MarseilleLigue 1
22 MarLyon1–2MonacoLigue 1
14 MarMonaco2–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
06 MarParis Saint Germain1–3MonacoLigue 1
8Win53%
4Draw27%
3Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersToulouse5
A. Dominguez
Missing FixtureInjury
A. Francis
Missing FixtureBroken Leg
F. Magri
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
R. Messali
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Y. Gboho
Missing FixtureRed Card
Monaco7
Caio Henrique
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
K. Ouattara
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Salisu
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. Brunner
Missing FixtureInjury
S. Idumbo
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
T. Minamino
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Vanderson
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.62 (58.3%)
Both Teams Score1.58 (59.3%)
Value Bets
Toulouse Win4.32 (29.5%)
Monaco Win1.74 (49.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.31 (41.7%)
BTTS No2.28 (40.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.98 (20.9%)
