Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
#6 · Major League Soccer
DWWDW
3 - 3
BMO Field
Referee: F. Bazakos
Philadelphia Union
#13 · Major League Soccer
DWLLD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.63 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 59.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Toronto FC will face Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer at BMO Field.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Toronto FC has a 43.8% probability of winning this match. Philadelphia Union has a 32.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Toronto FC have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Toronto FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- With a combined average of 3.5 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Toronto FC43.8%2.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.7%1.83
Both Teams to Score
Yes59.6%1.63
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.05
16.6%
1-0
8.67
11.6%
0-1
8.80
11.4%
2-1
8.95
11.3%
1-2
9.06
11.1%
0-0
10.48
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.62 | Draw 3.30 | Away 2.60 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.83 | Under 1.96 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.72 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.05 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.63 | No 2.17 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.45 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.46 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals74.8%
Over 2.5 Goals55.7%
Over 3.5 Goals30.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Toronto FC | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 | DDWWD |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | DWLLL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonToronto FCPhiladelphia Union
1.86Goals p.g.1.69
1.57Goals conceded p.g.1.25
14%Clean sheets31%
50%Win rate31%
3.43Avg goals in match2.94
Recent Results
Toronto FCLAST MATCHES
18 AprToronto FC3–3AustinMajor League Soccer
04 AprToronto FC3–2Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
21 MarToronto FC2–1Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
14 MarToronto FC1–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
08 MarFC Cincinnati0–1Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
01 MarVancouver Whitecaps3–0Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
7Win50%
3Draw21%
4Lost29%
LAST MATCHESPhiladelphia Union
18 AprPhiladelphia Union0–0DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
11 AprCF Montreal1–2Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
04 AprCharlotte2–1Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
21 MarPhiladelphia Union1–2Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
19 MarClub America1–1Philadelphia UnionCONCACAF Champions League
14 MarAtlanta United FC3–1Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
5Win31%
2Draw13%
9Lost56%
Lineups
ConfirmedToronto FC5-3-2Confirmed
22Richie LaryeaDEF
12Zane MonlouisDEF
14Alonso CoelloDEF
19Kobe FranklinDEF
25Walker ZimmermanDEF
9Josh SargentFWD
29Deandre KerrFWD
1Luka GavranGK
20Dániel SallóiMID
21Jonathan OsorioMID
8José CifuentesMID
Substitutes
76Lazar StefanovicDEF
75Reid FisherDEF
44Raheem EdwardsDEF
11Derrick Etienne JuniorFWD
17Emilio AristizábalFWD
99Jules-Anthony VilsaintFWD
23William YarbroughGK
78Malik HenryMID
71Markus CimermancicMID
Philadelphia Union4-4-2Confirmed
26Nathan HarrielDEF
39Frankie WestfieldDEF
29Olwethu MakhanyaDEF
5Japhet Sery LarsenDEF
9Bruno DamianiFWD
10Milan IloskiFWD
18Andre BlakeGK
21Danley Jean JacquesMID
8Jesus BuenoMID
4Jovan LukićMID
19Indiana VassilevMID
Substitutes
2Geiner MartínezDEF
20Philippe NdingaDEF
23Ezekiel AlladohFWD
51Malik JakupovicFWD
76Andrew RickGK
16Ben BenderMID
14Jeremy RafanelloMID
6Cavan SullivanMID
11Alejandro BedoyaMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersToronto FC7
B. Kuscevic
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
D. Mihailovic
Missing FixturePelvis Injury
H. Wingo
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Matheus Pereira
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
N. Gomis
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
T. Corbeanu
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
W. Zimmerman
QuestionableCalf Injury
Philadelphia Union4
A. Anello
QuestionableMuscle Injury
E. Davis III
QuestionableInjury
Q. Sullivan
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
S. Olivas
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.83 (55.7%)
Both Teams Score1.63 (59.6%)
Value Bets
Toronto FC Win2.62 (43.8%)
Philadelphia Union Win2.60 (32.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.96 (44.3%)
BTTS No2.17 (40.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.30 (23.5%)
