Tondela vs Nacional
Tondela
#17 · Primeira Liga
LLD?L
0 - 2
Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela
Referee: H. Malheiro
Nacional
#14 · Primeira Liga
WWLLD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.92
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.86 (implied 53.8%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.3% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.81. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Tondela will face Nacional in the Primeira Liga at Estádio João Cardoso.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Tondela has a 32.9% probability of winning this match. Nacional has a 42.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 1.8 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Nacional42.7%2.49
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.3%1.86
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.7%1.69
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.99
16.8%
0-1
8.10
12.5%
1-0
8.63
11.7%
1-2
8.92
11.3%
0-0
9.37
10.8%
2-1
9.42
10.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.76 | Draw 3.28 | Away 2.49 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.93 | Under 1.86 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.44 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.25 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.69 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.50 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.41 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90%
Over 1.5 Goals72.8%
Over 2.5 Goals44.7%
Over 3.5 Goals28.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 14 | Nacional | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 28 | WLWLL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonTondelaNacional
0.71Goals p.g.1.07
1.36Goals conceded p.g.1.29
21%Clean sheets29%
14%Win rate21%
2.07Avg goals in match2.36
Recent Results
TondelaLAST MATCHES
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
03 AprGuimaraes5–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarTondela0–0AVSPrimeira Liga
15 MarSporting CP–TondelaPrimeira Liga
09 MarTondela0–1Rio AvePrimeira Liga
01 MarTondela2–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2Win14%
5Draw36%
6Lost43%
LAST MATCHESNacional
18 AprNacional1–0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
04 AprNacional2–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarFamalicao1–0NacionalPrimeira Liga
15 MarNacional0–1EstorilPrimeira Liga
07 MarMoreirense1–1NacionalPrimeira Liga
28 FebNacional1–2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
3Win21%
3Draw21%
8Lost57%
Lineups
ConfirmedTondela4-3-3Confirmed
27Rodrigo ConceiçãoDEF
20Brayan MedinaDEF
44João SilvaDEF
2BebetoDEF
26Arjen Van Der HeideFWD
16Rony LopesFWD
70MoudjatovicFWD
31Bernardo FontesGK
79Hugo FélixMID
10Joe HodgeMID
32Juan RodríguezMID
Substitutes
21Rémy VitaDEF
5João AfonsoDEF
48Tiago MansoDEF
90Makan AïkoFWD
29Jordan SiebatcheuFWD
23Benjamin Mbunga-KimpiokaFWD
30Lucas CañizaresGK
8Helder TavaresMID
15Siphephelo SitholeMID
Nacional4-2-3-1Confirmed
34Léo SantosDEF
5Jose GomesDEF
38Ze VitorDEF
16Alan NúñezDEF
9Jesús RamírezFWD
1KaiqueGK
22Filipe SoaresMID
6Matheus DiasMID
10Daniel JúniorMID
27Gabriel VeronMID
11Paulinho BóiaMID
Substitutes
33Francisco GonçalvesDEF
2João AurélioDEF
19Lucas JoaoFWD
99PabloFWD
7WitiFWD
50KevynGK
18Andre SousaMID
30Martim Gustavo WattsMID
26Joel SilvaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersTondela
No reported absences
Nacional
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.86 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Tondela Win2.76 (32.9%)
Nacional Win2.49 (42.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.93 (44.7%)
Both Teams Score1.69 (50.7%)
BTTS No2.05 (49.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.28 (24.5%)
