Toluca vs Leon
Toluca
#5 · Liga MX
LLWDW
4 - 1
Leon
#10 · Liga MX
LWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 58.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Toluca will face Leon in the Liga MX.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Toluca has a 56.9% probability of winning this match. Leon has a 23.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Leon are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Toluca56.9%1.54
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.561.1%1.47
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.7%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.55
13.3%
1-1
8.17
12.3%
2-0
8.73
11.6%
1-0
9.22
10.9%
3-1
10.17
9.9%
3-0
11.66
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Away 5.13 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.47 | Under 2.55 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.13 | Under 5.33 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.21 | Under 1.63 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.56 | No 2.28 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.15 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.39 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94%
Over 1.5 Goals82.4%
Over 2.5 Goals61.1%
Over 3.5 Goals42.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 10 | Leon | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 22 | LWWWW |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonTolucaLeon
1.89Goals p.g.1.29
1.05Goals conceded p.g.1.76
37%Clean sheets12%
47%Win rate41%
2.95Avg goals in match3.06
Recent Results
TolucaLAST MATCHES
23 AprMazatlán4–3TolucaLiga MX
19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX
16 AprLos Angeles Galaxy0–3TolucaCONCACAF Champions League
13 AprToluca1–1Atletico San LuisLiga MX
09 AprToluca4–2Los Angeles GalaxyCONCACAF Champions League
04 AprClub Queretaro1–0TolucaLiga MX
9Win47%
6Draw32%
4Lost21%
LAST MATCHESLeon
22 AprLeon2–3Club AmericaLiga MX
19 AprLeon3–1FC JuarezLiga MX
11 AprPuebla0–1LeonLiga MX
05 AprLeon2–0AtlasLiga MX
22 MarAtletico San Luis1–2LeonLiga MX
19 MarGuadalajara Chivas5–0LeonLiga MX
7Win41%
1Draw6%
9Lost53%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersToluca
No reported absences
Leon
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Toluca Win1.54 (56.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.47 (61.1%)
Both Teams Score1.56 (58.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.55 (38.9%)
BTTS No2.28 (41.3%)
Speculative
Draw4.35 (19.2%)
Leon Win5.13 (23.9%)