Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
#11 · Premier League
LWLLW
0 - 5
Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Referee: D. England
Nottingham Forest
#16 · Premier League
WDDWW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sunderland will face Nottingham Forest in the Premier League at Stadium of Light.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sunderland has a 38.1% probability of winning this match. Nottingham Forest has a 36.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Nottingham Forest have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Sunderland38.1%2.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.1%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.7%1.84
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.87
17.1%
0-1
7.50
13.4%
1-0
7.66
13.1%
0-0
8.43
11.9%
1-2
9.68
10.4%
2-1
9.72
10.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.73 | Draw 3.16 | Away 2.69 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.18 | Under 1.69 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.36 | Under 3.03 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.84 | Under 1.24 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.84 | No 1.91 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.46 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.8%
Over 1.5 Goals68.9%
Over 2.5 Goals44.9%
Over 3.5 Goals24.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 11 | Sunderland | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 46 | LWWLW |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 | WDWDD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSunderlandNottingham Forest
1.15Goals p.g.1.53
1.46Goals conceded p.g.0.94
23%Clean sheets35%
38%Win rate35%
2.62Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
SunderlandLAST MATCHES
19 AprAston Villa4–3SunderlandPremier League
22 MarNewcastle1–2SunderlandPremier League
14 MarSunderland0–1BrightonPremier League
08 MarPort Vale1–0SunderlandFA Cup
03 MarLeeds0–1SunderlandPremier League
28 FebBournemouth1–1SunderlandPremier League
5Win38%
1Draw8%
7Lost54%
LAST MATCHESNottingham Forest
19 AprNottingham Forest4–1BurnleyPremier League
12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston VillaPremier League
09 AprFC Porto1–1Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
22 MarTottenham0–3Nottingham ForestPremier League
19 MarFC Midtjylland1–2Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
15 MarNottingham Forest0–0FulhamPremier League
6Win35%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
Lineups
ConfirmedSunderland4-2-3-1Confirmed
20Nordi MukieleDEF
32Trai HumeDEF
15Omar AldereteDEF
5Daniel BallardDEF
9Brian BrobbeyFWD
22Robin RoefsGK
28Enzo Le FéeMID
19Habib DiarraMID
11Chris RiggMID
27Noah SadikiMID
34Granit XhakaMID
Substitutes
3Dennis CirkinDEF
6Lutsharel GeertruidaDEF
17Reinildo MandavaDEF
18Wilson IsidorFWD
12Eliezer MayendaFWD
7Chemsdine TalbiFWD
31Melker EllborgGK
13Luke O'NienMID
50Harrison JonesMID
Nottingham Forest4-4-2Confirmed
31Nikola MilenkovićDEF
3Neco WilliamsDEF
23JairDEF
34Ola AinaDEF
11Chris WoodFWD
19Igor JesusFWD
26Matz SelsGK
6Ibrahim SangaréMID
21Omari HutchinsonMID
10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMID
8Elliot AndersonMID
Substitutes
25Luca NetzDEF
4MoratoDEF
9Taiwo AwoniyiFWD
29Dilane BakwaFWD
14Dan NdoyeFWD
27Stefan OrtegaGK
24James McAteeMID
22Ryan YatesMID
16Nicolás DomínguezMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersSunderland5
A. Alese
Missing FixtureShoulder injury
B. Traore
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. T. Bi
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
N. Angulo
QuestionableMuscle Injury
R. Mundle
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Nottingham Forest4
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing FixtureInjury
John Victor
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
N. Savona
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
W. Boly
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.69 (55.1%)
Value Bets
Sunderland Win2.73 (38.1%)
Nottingham Forest Win2.69 (36.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.18 (44.9%)
Both Teams Score1.84 (50.7%)
BTTS No1.91 (49.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.16 (24.9%)
