Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
#1 · Bundesliga
DWDDW
1 - 1
Merkur-Arena, Graz
Referee: Arnes Talic, Austria
Lask Linz
#3 · Bundesliga
DWWLW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 61.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sturm Graz will face Lask Linz in the Bundesliga at Merkur-Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sturm Graz has a 36.6% probability of winning this match. Lask Linz has a 40.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Sturm Graz are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Lask Linz have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lask Linz average 2.1 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.7 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Lask Linz40.8%2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.558.8%1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes61.3%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.57
15.3%
1-2
8.04
12.5%
0-1
8.87
11.3%
2-1
10.44
9.7%
0-2
10.93
9.2%
2-2
11.08
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.21 | Draw 3.46 | Away 2.10 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.67 | Under 2.14 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.19 | Under 4.23 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.64 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.56 | No 2.26 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.69 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.32 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.9%
Over 1.5 Goals78%
Over 2.5 Goals58.8%
Over 3.5 Goals35.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 38 | DDWDW |
| 1 |  Ried | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 25 | WDDWL |
| 2 |  SCR Altach | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 31 | 30 | 1 | 23 | DDWLD |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 37 | WLWDL |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 37 | DWWLD |
| 3 |  WSG Wattens | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 20 | DDLWL |
| 5 |  Rapid Vienna | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 | DDLWW |
| 6 |  Wolfsberger AC | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 16 | LDDLD |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 33 | DDLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSturm GrazLask Linz
1.6Goals p.g.2.06
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.5
33%Clean sheets19%
40%Win rate56%
2.93Avg goals in match3.56
Recent Results
Sturm GrazLAST MATCHES
19 AprLask Linz1–1Sturm GrazBundesliga
05 AprRapid Vienna0–2Sturm GrazBundesliga
27 MarSturm Graz1–1First ViennaFriendlies Clubs
20 MarSturm Graz1–1Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
15 MarAustria Vienna2–5Sturm GrazBundesliga
08 MarSturm Graz2–0SCR AltachBundesliga
6Win40%
6Draw40%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESLask Linz
19 AprLask Linz1–1Sturm GrazBundesliga
10 AprRed Bull Salzburg2–3Lask LinzBundesliga
05 AprLask Linz4–1Austria ViennaBundesliga
22 MarRapid Vienna4–2Lask LinzBundesliga
18 MarRied1–2Lask LinzCup
13 MarLask Linz0–0TSV HartbergBundesliga
9Win56%
4Draw25%
3Lost19%
Lineups
ConfirmedSturm Graz3-4-2-1Confirmed
5Albert VallciDEF
30Paul-Friedrich KollerDEF
17Emir KarićDEF
20Seedy JattaFWD
10Otar KiteishviliFWD
77Maurice MaloneFWD
53Daniil KhudyakovGK
4Jon StankovicMID
23Arjan MalićMID
80Ryan FossoMID
47Emanuel AiwuMID
Substitutes
22Jusuf GazibegovićDEF
2Jeyland MitchellDEF
35Niklas GeyrhoferDEF
9Rory WilsonFWD
11Axel KayomboFWD
40Matteo BignettiGK
25Stefan HierländerMID
15Gizo MamageishviliMID
39Luca WeinhandlMID
Lask Linz3-4-1-2Confirmed
43AlemãoDEF
16Andrés AndradeDEF
48Modou Kéba CisséDEF
10Saša KalajdžićFWD
7Samuel AdeniranFWD
8Moses UsorFWD
1Lukas JungwirthGK
4Ismaila Cheick CoulibalyMID
20Kasper JørgensenMID
6Melayro BogardeMID
30Sascha HorvathMID
Substitutes
2George BelloDEF
3Xavier MbuyambaDEF
27Christoph LangFWD
11Maximilian EntrupFWD
29Florian FleckerFWD
33Tobias SchutzenauerGK
13Adetunji Rasaq AdeshinaMID
44Lukas KačavendaMID
52Cheikne KebeMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Lask Linz
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.67 (58.8%)
Both Teams Score1.56 (61.3%)
Value Bets
Sturm Graz Win3.21 (36.6%)
Lask Linz Win2.10 (40.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.14 (41.2%)
BTTS No2.26 (38.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.46 (22.6%)
