Stade Brestois 29 vs Lens

Ligue 1Regular Season - 31

Stade Brestois 29

#10 · Ligue 1

DLLLW

3 - 3

Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Referee: S. Frappart

Lens

#2 · Ligue 1

DWWLW

24.5%

Home Win

19.8%

Draw

55.7%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Over 2.5 Goals

Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.

Totals

1.68

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.62 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Stade Brestois 29 will face Lens in the Ligue 1 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Stade Brestois 29 has a 24.5% probability of winning this match. Lens has a 55.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.8%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Lens have won 3 of their last 5 games
Lens sit 2nd in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Lens average 2.4 goals per game
With a combined average of 3.7 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

Predictions

Moderate confidence

Match Result

2 — Lens55.7%1.58

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.559.9%1.62

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes58.6%1.66

Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-2

7.52

13.4%

1-1

7.73

13%

0-1

7.83

12.8%

0-2

7.95

12.7%

1-3

10.83

9.3%

0-3

11.38

8.9%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 5.38	Draw 4.25	Away 1.58
O/U 2.5	Over 1.62	Under 2.29
O/U 1.5	Over 1.18	Under 4.55
O/U 3.5	Over 2.51	Under 1.50
BTTS	Yes 1.66	No 2.12
Double Chance	1X 2.40	12 1.20	X2 1.15

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

92.6%

Over 1.5 Goals

79.4%

Over 2.5 Goals

59.9%

Over 3.5 Goals

37.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	29	21	3	5	65	25	40	66	WLWWL
2	Lens	30	20	3	7	60	32	28	63	DWLWL
3	Lille	30	16	6	8	49	34	15	54	DWWWW
4	Lyon	30	16	6	8	45	30	15	54	WWDLD
5	Rennes	30	15	8	7	52	41	11	53	WWWDL
6	Marseille	30	16	4	10	58	40	18	52	LWLLW
10	Stade Brestois 29	30	10	8	12	41	47	-6	38	DDLLL
16	Auxerre	30	5	10	15	25	39	-14	25	DDDWL
17	Nantes	30	4	8	18	25	49	-24	20	LDDDL
18	Metz	30	3	6	21	27	66	-39	15	LLDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Stade Brestois 29Lens

1.29Goals p.g.2.38

1.29Goals conceded p.g.1.44

36%Clean sheets25%

36%Win rate56%

2.57Avg goals in match3.81

Recent Results

Stade Brestois 29LAST MATCHES

19 AprNantes1–1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

04 AprStade Brestois 293–4RennesLigue 1

21 MarAuxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

14 MarMonaco2–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

08 MarStade Brestois 292–0Le HavreLigue 1

01 MarMetz0–1Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1

5Win36%

4Draw29%

5Lost36%

LAST MATCHESLens

24 AprStade Brestois 293–3LensLigue 1

21 AprLens4–1ToulouseCoupe de France

11 AprLens2–1RouenFriendlies Clubs

04 AprLille3–0LensLigue 1

20 MarLens5–1AngersLigue 1

14 MarLorient2–1LensLigue 1

9Win56%

3Draw19%

4Lost25%

Lineups

Confirmed

Stade Brestois 294-3-3Confirmed

77Kenny LalaDEF

27Daouda GuindoDEF

44Soumaila CoulibalyDEF

5Brendan ChardonnetDEF

19Ludovic AjorqueFWD

10Romain Del CastilloFWD

7Junior Dina EbimbeFWD

30Grégoire CoudertGK

8Hugo MagnettiMID

24Lucas TousartMID

13Joris ChotardMID

Substitutes

4Michel DiazDEF

12Luc ZogbéDEF

21Ibrahim Yayiya KanteFWD

99Pathé MboupFWD

17Mama BaldéFWD

1Radosław MajeckiGK

50Noah JaunyGK

39Axel LassusMID

33Hamidou MakalouMID

Lens3-4-2-1Confirmed

20Malang SarrDEF

27Arthur MasuakuDEF

25Ismaelo GaniouDEF

22Wesley SaidFWD

7Florian SotocaFWD

19Abdallah SimaFWD

40Robin RisserGK

2Ruben AguilarMID

14Matthieu UdolMID

28Adrien ThomassonMID

8Mamadou SangareMID

Substitutes

23Saud AbdulhamidDEF

6Samson BaidooDEF

11Odsonne ÉdouardFWD

9Allan Saint-MaximinFWD

10Florian ThauvinFWD

38Rayan FofanaFWD

16Mathieu GorgelinGK

21Amadou HaidaraMID

5Andrija BulatovicMID

Unavailable Players

7 players

Stade Brestois 294

✕B. Locko

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

✕K. Doumbia

Missing FixtureInjury

✕M. Balde

QuestionableThigh Injury

✕R. Labeau Lascary

Missing FixtureLoan agreement

Lens3

✕J. Gradit

Missing FixtureThigh Injury

✕K. Antonio

Missing FixtureFoot Injury

✕R. Gurtner

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Lens Win1.58 (55.7%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.62 (59.9%)

Both Teams Score1.66 (58.6%)

●Value Bets

Under 2.5 Goals2.29 (40.1%)

BTTS No2.12 (41.4%)

●Speculative

Stade Brestois 29 Win5.38 (24.5%)

Draw4.25 (19.8%)