St. Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City
#14 · Major League Soccer
LWDWL
2 - 3
CITYPARK
Referee: D. Fischer
San Jose Earthquakes
#2 · Major League Soccer
WWWWL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , St. Louis City will face San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer at CITYPARK.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that St. Louis City has a 35.4% probability of winning this match. San Jose Earthquakes has a 42.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- San Jose Earthquakes are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- San Jose Earthquakes sit 2nd in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- San Jose Earthquakes have a solid defence with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- San Jose Earthquakes have kept clean sheets in 53% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — San Jose Earthquakes42.5%2.55
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.553%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.48
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.88
14.6%
1-2
8.90
11.4%
2-1
8.88
11.3%
2-2
10.21
9.9%
1-0
10.87
9.3%
0-1
11.01
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.48 | Draw 3.66 | Away 2.55 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.56 | Under 2.37 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.91 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.36 | Under 1.55 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.48 | No 2.53 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.47 | 12 1.26 | X2 1.51 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.8%
Over 1.5 Goals80.8%
Over 2.5 Goals53%
Over 3.5 Goals39.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 14 | St. Louis City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Louis CitySan Jose Earthquakes
1.07Goals p.g.1.73
1.47Goals conceded p.g.0.47
13%Clean sheets53%
20%Win rate73%
2.53Avg goals in match2.2
Recent Results
St. Louis CityLAST MATCHES
19 AprSeattle Sounders4–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
16 AprSt. Louis City4–0FC TulsaUS Open Cup
04 AprNew York City FC1–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
22 MarSt. Louis City3–1New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
15 MarLos Angeles FC2–0St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
08 MarSt. Louis City0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
3Win20%
4Draw27%
6Lost40%
LAST MATCHESSan Jose Earthquakes
19 AprLos Angeles FC1–4San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
16 AprSan Jose Earthquakes2–0Phoenix RisingUS Open Cup
05 AprSan Jose Earthquakes3–0San DiegoMajor League Soccer
22 MarVancouver Whitecaps0–1San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
15 MarSan Jose Earthquakes0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
08 MarPhiladelphia Union0–1San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
11Win73%
1Draw7%
1Lost7%
Lineups
ConfirmedSt. Louis City3-4-3Confirmed
21Dante PolvaraDEF
5Lukas MacNaughtonDEF
32Timo BaumgartlDEF
17Marcel HartelFWD
16Sergio CórdovaFWD
11Simon BecherFWD
1Roman BürkiGK
24Daniel EdelmanMID
14Tomas TotlandMID
8Christopher DurkinMID
6Conrad WallemMID
Substitutes
20Rafael SantosDEF
27Fallou FallDEF
4Mamadou MbackeDEF
80Brendan McSorleyFWD
36Cedric TeuchertFWD
39Benjamin LundtGK
28Miguel PerezMID
10Eduard LöwenMID
59Mykhi JoynerMID
San Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Daniel MunieDEF
25Max FlorianiDEF
17Jack JasinskiDEF
4Dave RomneyDEF
19Preston JuddFWD
36Earl Edwards Jr.GK
40Jonathan GonzalezMID
16Jack SkahanMID
20Nick FernandezMID
11Timo WernerMID
6Ian HarkesMID
Substitutes
3Paul MarieDEF
2Jamar RickettsDEF
18Reid RobertsDEF
7Ousseni BoudaFWD
42DanielGK
10Niko TsakirisMID
14Ronaldo VieiraMID
34Beau LerouxMID
21Noel BuckMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersSt. Louis City
No reported absences
San Jose Earthquakes
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.48 (55%)
Value Bets
St. Louis City Win2.48 (35.4%)
San Jose Earthquakes Win2.55 (42.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.56 (53%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.37 (47%)
BTTS No2.53 (45%)
Speculative
Draw3.66 (22.1%)
