Sporting CP vs Benfica
Sporting CP
#3 · Primeira Liga
DLWLW
1 - 2
Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Benfica
#2 · Primeira Liga
WDWWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.62 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 57.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sporting CP will face Benfica in the Primeira Liga at Estádio José Alvalade.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sporting CP has a 44.5% probability of winning this match. Benfica has a 32.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Benfica have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Benfica average 2.0 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Sporting CP44.5%2.07
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.1%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes57.6%1.62
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.47
15.5%
2-1
8.09
12.4%
1-0
8.11
12.4%
2-0
10.06
10%
1-2
10.68
9.5%
0-1
10.66
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.07 | Draw 3.52 | Away 3.33 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.77 | Under 2.04 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.23 | Under 3.89 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.85 | Under 1.39 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.62 | No 2.17 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.30 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.4%
Over 1.5 Goals76%
Over 2.5 Goals54.1%
Over 3.5 Goals32.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSporting CPBenfica
1.89Goals p.g.2
0.95Goals conceded p.g.0.93
37%Clean sheets29%
63%Win rate64%
2.84Avg goals in match2.93
Recent Results
Sporting CPLAST MATCHES
22 AprFC Porto0–0Sporting CPTaça de Portugal
19 AprSporting CP1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
11 AprEstrela0–1Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
07 AprSporting CP0–1ArsenalUEFA Champions League
03 AprSporting CP4–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
22 MarAlverca1–4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
12Win63%
3Draw16%
3Lost16%
LAST MATCHESBenfica
19 AprSporting CP1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
06 AprCasa Pia1–1BenficaPrimeira Liga
21 MarBenfica3–0GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
14 MarArouca1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
08 MarBenfica2–2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
02 MarGIL Vicente1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
9Win64%
3Draw21%
2Lost14%
Lineups
ConfirmedSporting CP4-2-3-1Confirmed
72Eduardo QuaresmaDEF
20Maximiliano AraújoDEF
25Gonçalo InácioDEF
26Ousmane DiomandeDEF
97Luis Javier SuárezFWD
1Rui SilvaGK
42Morten HjulmandMID
10Geny CatamoMID
17Francisco TrincãoMID
8Pedro GonçalvesMID
5Hidemasa MoritaMID
Substitutes
13Giorgos VagiannidisDEF
91Ricardo MangasDEF
6Zeno DebastDEF
70Salvador BlopaDEF
90Rafael NelFWD
12João VirgíniaGK
14Giorgi KochorashviliMID
23Daniel BragançaMID
7Geovany QuendaMID
Benfica4-2-3-1Confirmed
44Tomás AraújoDEF
26Samuel DahlDEF
30Nicolás OtamendiDEF
17Amar DedićDEF
9Franjo IvanovićFWD
1Anatoliy TrubinGK
18Leandro BarreiroMID
25Gianluca PrestianniMID
20Richard RíosMID
8Fredrik AursnesMID
21Andreas SchjelderupMID
Substitutes
15Sidny Lopes CabralDEF
4António SilvaDEF
6Alexander BahDEF
14Vangelis PavlidisFWD
11Dodi LukebakioFWD
24Samuel SoaresGK
5Enzo BarrenecheaMID
10Georgiy SudakovMID
27Rafa SilvaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersSporting CP
No reported absences
Benfica
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.62 (57.6%)
Value Bets
Sporting CP Win2.07 (44.5%)
Benfica Win3.33 (32.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.77 (54.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.04 (45.9%)
BTTS No2.17 (42.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.52 (22.7%)
