Seattle Sounders vs St. Louis City
Seattle Sounders
#4 · Major League Soccer
WWLWD
4 - 1
Lumen Field
Referee: C. Penso
St. Louis City
#14 · Major League Soccer
LWDWL
★ OUR PICK
Seattle Sounders to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over St. Louis City make Seattle Sounders the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.80
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.74 (implied 57.6%) for Seattle Sounders to Win. Our model calculates a 57.7% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.73. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Seattle Sounders will face St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer at Lumen Field.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Seattle Sounders has a 57.7% probability of winning this match. St. Louis City has a 20.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Seattle Sounders have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Seattle Sounders sit 4th in the table, 10 places above their opponents
- Seattle Sounders average 2.0 goals per game
- Seattle Sounders have kept clean sheets in 41% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Seattle Sounders57.7%1.74
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.4%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.8%1.61
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.01
14.3%
2-1
7.64
13.2%
1-0
8.04
12.5%
2-0
8.66
11.7%
3-1
11.62
8.7%
2-2
12.12
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.74 | Draw 3.79 | Away 4.49 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.65 | Under 2.21 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.19 | Under 4.45 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.57 | Under 1.48 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.61 | No 2.20 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.19 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.06 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92%
Over 1.5 Goals78.9%
Over 2.5 Goals55.4%
Over 3.5 Goals36.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Seattle Sounders | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | WWDWW |
| 14 | St. Louis City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 | LDDWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSeattle SoundersSt. Louis City
2Goals p.g.1.07
1Goals conceded p.g.1.47
41%Clean sheets13%
71%Win rate20%
3Avg goals in match2.53
Recent Results
Seattle SoundersLAST MATCHES
19 AprSeattle Sounders4–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
16 AprSeattle Sounders3–1Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
09 AprTigres UANL2–0Seattle SoundersCONCACAF Champions League
05 AprHouston Dynamo0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
22 MarMinnesota United FC0–0Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
19 MarSeattle Sounders2–1Vancouver WhitecapsCONCACAF Champions League
12Win71%
2Draw12%
3Lost18%
LAST MATCHESSt. Louis City
19 AprSeattle Sounders4–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
16 AprSt. Louis City4–0FC TulsaUS Open Cup
04 AprNew York City FC1–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
22 MarSt. Louis City3–1New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
15 MarLos Angeles FC2–0St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
08 MarSt. Louis City0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
3Win20%
4Draw27%
6Lost40%
Lineups
ConfirmedSeattle Sounders4-2-3-1Confirmed
35Antino LopezDEF
5Nouhou ToloDEF
85Kalani Kossa-RienziDEF
16Alex RoldánDEF
19Daniel MusovskiFWD
26Andrew ThomasGK
17Paul ArriolaMID
11Albert RusnakMID
37Snyder BrunellMID
7Cristian RoldánMID
31Hassani DotsonMID
Substitutes
39Stuart HawkinsDEF
33Cody BakerDEF
14Paul RothrockFWD
13Jordan MorrisFWD
95Osaze De RosarioFWD
9Jesús FerreiraFWD
24Stefan FreiGK
45Peter KingstonMID
St. Louis City4-3-3Confirmed
32Timo BaumgartlDEF
20Rafael SantosDEF
21Dante PolvaraDEF
5Lukas MacNaughtonDEF
36Cedric TeuchertFWD
17Marcel HartelFWD
11Simon BecherFWD
1Roman BürkiGK
24Daniel EdelmanMID
8Christopher DurkinMID
6Conrad WallemMID
Substitutes
14Tomas TotlandDEF
4Mamadou MbackeDEF
27Fallou FallDEF
80Brendan McSorleyFWD
77Sang-bin JeongFWD
16Sergio CórdovaFWD
39Benjamin LundtGK
28Miguel PerezMID
10Eduard LöwenMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersSeattle Sounders6
Kim Kee-Hee
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
N. Petkovic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. de La Vega
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
R. Sailor
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
S. Hawkins
QuestionableMuscle Injury
Y. Gomez Andrade
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
St. Louis City3
Celio Pompeu
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
E. Lowen
QuestionableIllness
J. Orozco
Missing FixtureConcussion
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Seattle Sounders Win1.74 (57.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.65 (55.4%)
Both Teams Score1.61 (55.8%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.21 (44.6%)
BTTS No2.20 (44.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.79 (21.5%)
St. Louis City Win4.49 (20.8%)
