SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim
SC Freiburg
#7 · Bundesliga
LWWWL
2 - 1
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Referee: P. Ittrich
1. FC Heidenheim
#18 · Bundesliga
LDDLL
★ OUR PICK
SC Freiburg to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over 1. FC Heidenheim make SC Freiburg the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.75
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 (implied 59.2%) for SC Freiburg to Win. Our model calculates a 61.3% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.63. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , SC Freiburg will face 1. FC Heidenheim in the Bundesliga at Europa-Park Stadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that SC Freiburg has a 61.3% probability of winning this match. 1. FC Heidenheim has a 18.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 games
- SC Freiburg sit 7th in the table, 11 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — SC Freiburg61.3%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.558.9%1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.5%1.58
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.49
13.4%
2-1
7.53
13.3%
1-0
8.72
11.5%
2-0
9.03
11.1%
3-1
11.35
8.9%
2-2
12.25
8.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.69 | Draw 4.05 | Away 4.60 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.56 | Under 2.39 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.81 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.45 | Under 1.56 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.58 | No 2.30 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.19 | 12 1.22 | X2 2.16 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.3%
Over 1.5 Goals80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals58.9%
Over 3.5 Goals38.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | 80 | 79 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 64 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 56 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 54 | WDLLD |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 52 | LWWDD |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 43 | WWLWL |
| 16 |  FC St. Pauli | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 26 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 24 | WLLLD |
| 18 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 19 | LWDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonSC Freiburg1. FC Heidenheim
1.32Goals p.g.1.21
1.16Goals conceded p.g.2.21
26%Clean sheets0%
47%Win rate0%
2.47Avg goals in match3.43
Recent Results
SC FreiburgLAST MATCHES
23 AprVfB Stuttgart2–1SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
19 AprSC Freiburg2–11. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
12 AprFSV Mainz 050–1SC FreiburgBundesliga
09 AprSC Freiburg3–0Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
04 AprSC Freiburg2–3Bayern MünchenBundesliga
22 MarFC St. Pauli1–2SC FreiburgBundesliga
9Win47%
2Draw11%
8Lost42%
LAST MATCHES1. FC Heidenheim
19 AprSC Freiburg2–11. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
04 AprBorussia Mönchengladbach2–21. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
21 Mar1. FC Heidenheim3–3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
14 MarEintracht Frankfurt1–01. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
07 Mar1. FC Heidenheim2–41899 HoffenheimBundesliga
28 FebWerder Bremen2–01. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
0Win0%
5Draw36%
9Lost64%
Lineups
ConfirmedSC Freiburg4-2-3-1Confirmed
43Bruno OgbusDEF
17Lukas KublerDEF
28Matthias GinterDEF
30Christian GünterDEF
31Igor MatanovićFWD
1Noah AtuboluGK
8Maximilian EggesteinMID
32Vincenzo GrifoMID
9Lucas HölerMID
7Derry ScherhantMID
44Johan ManzambiMID
Substitutes
29Philipp TreuDEF
33Jordy MakengoDEF
3Philipp LienhartDEF
19Jan-Niklas BesteDEF
22Cyriaque IriéFWD
26Maximilian PhilippFWD
21Florian MüllerGK
14Yuito SuzukiMID
27Nicolas HöflerMID
1. FC Heidenheim4-3-3Confirmed
26Hennes BehrensDEF
2Marnon BuschDEF
19Jonas FohrenbachDEF
6Patrick MainkaDEF
17Mathias HonsakFWD
22Arijon IbrahimovićFWD
18Marvin PieringerFWD
41Diant RamajGK
30Niklas DorschMID
3Jan SchöppnerMID
16Julian NiehuesMID
Substitutes
4Tim SierslebenDEF
25Leonidas StergiouDEF
23Haktab Omar TraoreDEF
11Budu ZivzivadzeFWD
9Stefan SchimmerFWD
10Christian Joe ContehFWD
40Frank FellerGK
20Luca KerberMID
21Adrian BeckMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersSC Freiburg2
M. Rosenfelder
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
P. Osterhage
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
1. FC Heidenheim6
B. Gimber
Missing FixtureInjury
E. Dinkci
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Fohrenbach
Missing FixtureInjury
L. Paqarada
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Kaufmann
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
S. Conteh
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
SC Freiburg Win1.69 (61.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.56 (58.9%)
Both Teams Score1.58 (58.5%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.39 (41.1%)
BTTS No2.30 (41.5%)
Speculative
Draw4.05 (20.6%)
1. FC Heidenheim Win4.60 (18.1%)
