Sao Paulo vs Mirassol
Sao Paulo
#4 · Serie A
WLWLW
1 - 0
Estadio Do MorumBIS, Campinas
Referee: R. Claus
Mirassol
#18 · Serie A
WLLWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.82
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.73 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Sao Paulo will face Mirassol in the Serie A at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Sao Paulo has a 54% probability of winning this match. Mirassol has a 22.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Sao Paulo have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Sao Paulo sit 4th in the table, 14 places above their opponents
- Sao Paulo boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Sao Paulo54%1.92
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.1%1.73
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.3%1.86
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.17
16.3%
1-0
6.24
16.1%
2-1
8.14
12.4%
2-0
8.21
12.2%
0-0
8.65
11.6%
0-1
9.42
10.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.92 | Draw 3.44 | Away 3.89 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.09 | Under 1.73 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.34 | Under 3.13 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.74 | Under 1.25 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.86 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.24 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.84 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.2%
Over 1.5 Goals70%
Over 2.5 Goals42.9%
Over 3.5 Goals25%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 18 | Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSao PauloMirassol
1.45Goals p.g.1.05
0.8Goals conceded p.g.1.21
35%Clean sheets16%
65%Win rate21%
2.25Avg goals in match2.26
Recent Results
Sao PauloLAST MATCHES
21 AprSao Paulo1–0JuventudeCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
14 AprSao Paulo2–0O'HigginsCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprVitoria2–0Sao PauloSerie A
08 AprBoston River0–1Sao PauloCONMEBOL Sudamericana
04 AprSao Paulo4–1CruzeiroSerie A
13Win65%
2Draw10%
5Lost25%
LAST MATCHESMirassol
19 AprInternacional1–2MirassolSerie A
15 AprLDU de Quito2–0MirassolCONMEBOL Libertadores
11 AprMirassol1–2BahiaSerie A
08 AprMirassol1–0LanusCONMEBOL Libertadores
05 AprMirassol0–1RB BragantinoSerie A
01 AprBotafogo3–2MirassolSerie A
4Win21%
5Draw26%
9Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSao Paulo
No reported absences
Mirassol
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.73 (57.1%)
Value Bets
Sao Paulo Win1.92 (54%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.09 (42.9%)
Both Teams Score1.86 (47.7%)
BTTS No1.86 (52.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.44 (23.5%)
Mirassol Win3.89 (22.5%)
