Santos vs Fluminense
Santos
#15 · Serie A
LDWLL
2 - 3
Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Santos
Referee: W. Sampaio
Fluminense
#3 · Serie A
WLLDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.71
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Santos will face Fluminense in the Serie A at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Santos has a 40.1% probability of winning this match. Fluminense has a 35.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Fluminense sit 3rd in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- Fluminense have kept clean sheets in 42% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Santos40.1%2.30
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.3%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.6%1.87
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.79
17.3%
1-0
6.66
15.1%
0-0
7.99
12.5%
0-1
8.05
12.5%
2-1
8.66
11.6%
2-0
10.12
10%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.30 | Draw 3.17 | Away 3.17 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.18 | Under 1.66 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.36 | Under 2.98 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.01 | Under 1.22 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.87 | No 1.86 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.33 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.61 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.4%
Over 1.5 Goals68.6%
Over 2.5 Goals44.7%
Over 3.5 Goals23.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 | Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 15 | Santos | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 | LWLWD |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSantosFluminense
1.37Goals p.g.1.42
1.37Goals conceded p.g.0.95
26%Clean sheets42%
26%Win rate53%
2.74Avg goals in match2.37
Recent Results
SantosLAST MATCHES
19 AprSantos2–3FluminenseSerie A
15 AprSantos1–1Deportivo RecoletaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprSantos1–0Atletico-MGSerie A
08 AprDeportivo Cuenca1–0SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprFlamengo3–1SantosSerie A
02 AprSantos2–0RemoSerie A
5Win26%
6Draw32%
8Lost42%
LAST MATCHESFluminense
19 AprSantos2–3FluminenseSerie A
16 AprFluminense1–2Independ. RivadaviaCONMEBOL Libertadores
12 AprFluminense1–2FlamengoSerie A
07 AprDeportivo La Guaira0–0FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
04 AprCoritiba1–1FluminenseSerie A
02 AprFluminense3–1CorinthiansSerie A
10Win53%
5Draw26%
4Lost21%
Lineups
ConfirmedSantos4-2-3-1Confirmed
18Igor ViníciusDEF
14Luan PeresDEF
4Lucas VeríssimoDEF
22Álvaro BarrealDEF
9Gabriel BarbosaFWD
77Gabriel BrazãoGK
10NeymarMID
49Gabriel BontempoMID
15Willian AraoMID
48Gustavo Henrique PereiraMID
21MoisésMID
Substitutes
38Rafael GonzagaDEF
98Adonis FríasDEF
12MaykeDEF
19Lautaro DíazFWD
7Robinho JúniorFWD
32Benjamín RollheiserFWD
1DiogenesGK
5Joao SchmidtMID
16ThacianoMID
6Ze RafaelMID
28Christian OlivaMID
30MiguelitoMID
Fluminense4-2-3-1Confirmed
23GugaDEF
13Guilherme AranaDEF
22Juan FreytesDEF
3JemmesDEF
19Rodrigo CastilloFWD
1FábioGK
35HérculesMID
5Facundo BernalMID
25AlissonMID
11Jefferson SavarinoMID
90Kevin SernaMID
Substitutes
21Igor RabelloDEF
6ReneDEF
2Samuel XavierDEF
46Júlio FidelisDEF
29Julián MillánDEF
4IgnácioDEF
9John KennedyFWD
28Riquelme FelipeFWD
34Wesley NatãFWD
27Marcelo PitalugaGK
10GansoMID
94OtávioMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersSantos6
G. Escobar
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Gabriel Menino
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Mayke
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Moises
QuestionableInjury
T. Rincon
Missing FixtureHealth problems
Vinicius Lira
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Fluminense6
A. Canobbio
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
G. Cano
Missing FixtureInjury
L. Acosta
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Martinelli
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Matheus Reis
Missing FixtureInjury
Nonato
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.66 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Santos Win2.30 (40.1%)
Fluminense Win3.17 (35.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.18 (44.7%)
Both Teams Score1.87 (50.6%)
BTTS No1.86 (49.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.17 (24.7%)
