San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
#16 · Liga Profesional Argentina
DWDWD
0 - 0
Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires
Referee: L. Rey Hilfer
Velez Sarsfield
#3 · Liga Profesional Argentina
DWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.57 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 59.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , San Lorenzo will face Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional Argentina at Estadio Pedro Bidegain.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that San Lorenzo has a 35.7% probability of winning this match. Velez Sarsfield has a 36.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 27.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- San Lorenzo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in the table, 13 places above their opponents
- San Lorenzo boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per game
- Velez Sarsfield have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
- San Lorenzo have kept clean sheets in 59% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Velez Sarsfield36.7%2.54
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.568.1%1.38
Both Teams to Score
No59.7%1.57
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
5.56
18.1%
1-1
5.58
18%
0-0
5.60
17.9%
1-0
6.27
16%
1-2
10.11
10%
0-2
10.18
9.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.11 | Draw 2.81 | Away 2.54 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.91 | Under 1.38 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.62 | Under 2.26 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 6.16 | Under 1.10 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.27 | No 1.57 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.49 | 12 1.39 | X2 1.35 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals83.9%
Over 1.5 Goals58.3%
Over 2.5 Goals31.9%
Over 3.5 Goals15.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 16 | San Lorenzo | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | DDWDL | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSan LorenzoVelez Sarsfield
1.18Goals p.g.1.2
0.76Goals conceded p.g.0.8
59%Clean sheets40%
35%Win rate47%
1.94Avg goals in match2
Recent Results
San LorenzoLAST MATCHES
20 AprSan Lorenzo0–0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
17 AprSan Lorenzo2–0Deportivo CuencaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
08 AprDeportivo Recoleta1–1San LorenzoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
03 AprSan Lorenzo1–0Estudiantes L.P.Liga Profesional Argentina
25 MarDeportivo Riestra1–1San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
21 MarSan Lorenzo5–0Deportivo RinconCopa Argentina
6Win35%
8Draw47%
3Lost18%
LAST MATCHESVelez Sarsfield
20 AprSan Lorenzo0–0Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
07 AprVelez Sarsfield4–1Deportivo ArmenioCopa Argentina
03 AprGimnasia M.3–2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
21 MarVelez Sarsfield0–1LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
14 MarPlatense0–2Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
10 MarTigre1–1Velez SarsfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
7Win47%
5Draw33%
3Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSan Lorenzo
No reported absences
Velez Sarsfield
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.38 (68.1%)
BTTS No1.57 (59.7%)
Value Bets
San Lorenzo Win3.11 (35.7%)
Draw2.81 (27.6%)
Velez Sarsfield Win2.54 (36.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.91 (31.9%)
Both Teams Score2.27 (40.3%)
