San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin
San Jose Earthquakes
#2 · Major League Soccer
WWWWL
5 - 1
PayPal Park
Referee: T. Ford
Austin
#13 · Major League Soccer
DLLDD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , San Jose Earthquakes will face Austin in the Major League Soccer at PayPal Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that San Jose Earthquakes has a 67.3% probability of winning this match. Austin has a 14.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- San Jose Earthquakes are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- San Jose Earthquakes sit 2nd in the table, 11 places above their opponents
- San Jose Earthquakes boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.5 goals per game
- San Jose Earthquakes have kept clean sheets in 53% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — San Jose Earthquakes67.3%1.46
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.3%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50.5%1.67
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.51
13.4%
2-0
7.67
13.1%
1-0
8.15
12.3%
1-1
8.26
12.2%
3-1
10.12
10%
3-0
10.21
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.46 | Draw 4.64 | Away 6.11 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.53 | Under 2.41 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 5.01 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.35 | Under 1.57 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.67 | No 2.10 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.16 | X2 2.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.2%
Over 1.5 Goals81.2%
Over 2.5 Goals54.3%
Over 3.5 Goals40%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 13 | Austin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 7 | DLDDL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose EarthquakesAustin
1.73Goals p.g.1
0.47Goals conceded p.g.1.69
53%Clean sheets25%
73%Win rate12%
2.2Avg goals in match2.69
Recent Results
San Jose EarthquakesLAST MATCHES
19 AprLos Angeles FC1–4San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
16 AprSan Jose Earthquakes2–0Phoenix RisingUS Open Cup
05 AprSan Jose Earthquakes3–0San DiegoMajor League Soccer
22 MarVancouver Whitecaps0–1San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
15 MarSan Jose Earthquakes0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
08 MarPhiladelphia Union0–1San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
11Win73%
1Draw7%
1Lost7%
LAST MATCHESAustin
18 AprToronto FC3–3AustinMajor League Soccer
14 AprLouisville City2–1AustinUS Open Cup
11 AprAustin1–2Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
04 AprInter Miami2–2AustinMajor League Soccer
22 MarAustin0–0Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
15 MarReal Salt Lake2–1AustinMajor League Soccer
2Win13%
6Draw38%
8Lost50%
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
17Jack JasinskiDEF
2Jamar RickettsDEF
18Reid RobertsDEF
5Daniel MunieDEF
19Preston JuddFWD
42DanielGK
14Ronaldo VieiraMID
34Beau LerouxMID
11Timo WernerMID
10Niko TsakirisMID
7Ousseni BoudaMID
Substitutes
4Dave RomneyDEF
3Paul MarieDEF
25Max FlorianiDEF
36Earl Edwards Jr.GK
20Nick FernandezMID
6Ian HarkesMID
40Jonathan GonzalezMID
16Jack SkahanMID
21Noel BuckMID
Austin4-4-2Confirmed
4Brendan Hines-IkeDEF
29Guilherme BiroDEF
15Jonathan BellDEF
17Jon GallagherDEF
11Facundo TorresFWD
19Calvin FodreyFWD
1Brad StuverGK
14Besard SabovićMID
24Jorge AlastueyMID
30Joseph RosalesMID
20Nicolas DubersarskyMID
Substitutes
35Mateja ĐorđevićDEF
23Žan KolmaničDEF
5Oleksandr SvatokDEF
3Mikkel DeslerDEF
21Christian RamirezFWD
12Damian LasGK
38Ervin TorresMID
6Ilie SanchezMID
32Micah BurtonMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersSan Jose Earthquakes2
D. Jones
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
Vitor Costa
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
Austin6
B. Vazquez
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
D. Pereira
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Nelson
QuestionableLeg Injury
M. Uzuni
QuestionableAnkle Injury
O. Wolff
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
R. Taylor
QuestionableKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
San Jose Earthquakes Win1.46 (67.3%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.53 (54.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.41 (45.7%)
Both Teams Score1.67 (50.5%)
BTTS No2.10 (49.5%)
Speculative
Draw4.64 (18.7%)
Austin Win6.11 (14.1%)
