Rosario Central vs Sarmiento Junin
Rosario Central
#6 · Liga Profesional Argentina
WWDWL
2 - 1
Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, Rosario
Referee: A. Merlos
Sarmiento Junin
#28 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LWWWL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.67
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.63 (implied 61.4%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 63.2% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.58. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Rosario Central will face Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Rosario Central has a 62.7% probability of winning this match. Sarmiento Junin has a 14.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Rosario Central have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Sarmiento Junin have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Rosario Central sit 6th in the table, 22 places above their opponents
- Rosario Central boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game
- Rosario Central have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Rosario Central62.7%1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.563.2%1.63
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No61.5%1.55
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
4.82
20.8%
2-0
5.75
17.5%
1-1
7.21
13.9%
0-0
7.98
12.6%
2-1
8.13
12.4%
3-0
9.61
10.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.50 | Draw 3.81 | Away 7.25 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.24 | Under 1.63 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.40 | Under 2.84 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.19 | Under 1.20 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.31 | No 1.55 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.09 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.2%
Over 1.5 Goals67%
Over 2.5 Goals36.8%
Over 3.5 Goals22.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 | Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 28 | Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonRosario CentralSarmiento Junin
1.19Goals p.g.0.87
0.69Goals conceded p.g.1
44%Clean sheets33%
56%Win rate40%
1.88Avg goals in match1.87
Recent Results
Rosario CentralLAST MATCHES
19 AprRosario Central2–1Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
15 AprLibertad Asuncion0–1Rosario CentralCONMEBOL Libertadores
09 AprRosario Central0–0Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores
05 AprRosario Central2–1Atletico TucumanLiga Profesional Argentina
23 MarIndepend. Rivadavia2–0Rosario CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
15 MarRosario Central2–1BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentina
9Win56%
4Draw25%
3Lost19%
LAST MATCHESSarmiento Junin
19 AprRosario Central2–1Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
09 AprSarmiento Junin1–0Tristan SuarezCopa Argentina
02 AprBarracas Central1–2Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
22 MarSarmiento Junin2–0AldosiviLiga Profesional Argentina
15 MarRiver Plate2–0Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
11 MarSarmiento Junin0–0Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
6Win40%
2Draw13%
7Lost47%
Lineups
ConfirmedRosario Central4-2-3-1Confirmed
13Gastón ÁvilaDEF
46Ignacio OvandoDEF
16Enzo GiménezDEF
3Agustín SándezDEF
9Alejo VélizFWD
23Jeremias LedesmaGK
28Pol FernandezMID
8Jaminton CampazMID
18Julián FernándezMID
20Vicente PizarroMID
5Franco IbarraMID
Substitutes
47Luca RaffinDEF
33Alexis SotoDEF
32Emanuel CoronelDEF
2Carlos QuintanaDEF
7Marcelo CabreraFWD
26Giovanni CantizanoFWD
27Gaspar DuarteFWD
39Fabricio OviedoFWD
22Enzo CopettiFWD
1Jorge BrounGK
11Ángel Di MaríaMID
31Federico NavarroMID
Sarmiento Junin4-2-3-1Confirmed
2Juan Manuel InsaurraldeDEF
29Thiago SantamaríaDEF
77Nicolás PasquiniDEF
34Agustín SeyralDEF
27Junior MarabelFWD
1Javier BurraiGK
8Santiago SalleMID
14Mauricio MartínezMID
15Cristian ZabalaMID
19Julian ContreraMID
7Pablo MagninMID
Substitutes
3Lucas SuárezDEF
33Gabriel DíazDEF
4Juan Manuel CabreraDEF
40Brandon MárquezFWD
9Diego ChurinFWD
12Thyago AyalaGK
26Yair ArismendiMID
18Osmar GimenezMID
30Manuel MónacoMID
5Manuel GarciaMID
35Facundo AlaggiaMID
11Jonatan GómezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersRosario Central
No reported absences
Sarmiento Junin
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Rosario Central Win1.50 (62.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.63 (63.2%)
BTTS No1.55 (61.5%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.24 (36.8%)
Both Teams Score2.31 (38.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.81 (22.5%)
Sarmiento Junin Win7.25 (14.8%)
