River Plate vs Boca Juniors
River Plate
#2 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LWDWW
0 - 1
Estadio Monumental, Buenos Aires
Referee: D. Herrera
Boca Juniors
#1 · Liga Profesional Argentina
WWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.68
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.64 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 58.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , River Plate will face Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina at Estadio Monumental.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that River Plate has a 41.3% probability of winning this match. Boca Juniors has a 32.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- River Plate have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Boca Juniors are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
- River Plate boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game
- Boca Juniors have a solid defence with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- River Plate have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — River Plate41.3%2.27
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.566.7%1.46
Both Teams to Score
No58.9%1.64
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.46
18.4%
1-1
5.61
17.9%
0-0
6.16
16.3%
0-1
7.11
14.1%
2-0
9.24
10.9%
2-1
9.28
10.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.27 | Draw 2.96 | Away 3.41 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.65 | Under 1.46 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.52 | Under 2.41 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 5.28 | Under 1.14 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.14 | No 1.64 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.29 | 12 1.35 | X2 1.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals85.2%
Over 1.5 Goals61.2%
Over 2.5 Goals33.3%
Over 3.5 Goals17.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 | River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonRiver PlateBoca Juniors
1.25Goals p.g.1.38
0.69Goals conceded p.g.0.5
50%Clean sheets62%
56%Win rate56%
1.94Avg goals in match1.88
Recent Results
River PlateLAST MATCHES
19 AprRiver Plate0–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
16 AprRiver Plate1–0Carabobo FCCONMEBOL Sudamericana
09 AprBlooming1–1River PlateCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprRiver Plate3–0Belgrano CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
22 MarEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto0–2River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
15 MarRiver Plate2–0Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
9Win56%
3Draw19%
4Lost25%
LAST MATCHESBoca Juniors
19 AprRiver Plate0–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
15 AprBoca Juniors3–0Barcelona SCCONMEBOL Libertadores
08 AprU. Catolica1–2Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Libertadores
02 AprTalleres Cordoba0–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
22 MarBoca Juniors2–0Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
16 MarUnion Santa Fe1–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
9Win56%
5Draw31%
2Lost13%
Lineups
ConfirmedRiver Plate4-2-3-1Confirmed
13Lautaro RiveroDEF
28Lucas Martínez QuartaDEF
29Gonzalo MontielDEF
21Marcos AcuñaDEF
9Sebastian DriussiFWD
41Santiago BeltránGK
11Facundo ColidioMID
19Kendry PáezMID
26Tomás GalvánMID
6Aníbal MorenoMID
24Juan Cruz MezaMID
Substitutes
16Fabricio BustosDEF
20German PezzellaDEF
17Paulo DíazDEF
18Matías ViñaDEF
36Ulises GiménezDEF
38Ian SubiabreFWD
7Maximiliano SalasFWD
35Joaquin FreitasFWD
33Ezequiel CenturiónGK
25Lautaro PereyraMID
39Santiago LencinaMID
34Giuliano GaloppoMID
Boca Juniors4-3-1-2Confirmed
32Ayrton CostaDEF
23Marcelo WeigandtDEF
3Lautaro BlancoDEF
2Lautaro Di LolloDEF
28Adam BareiroFWD
16Miguel MerentielFWD
12Leandro BreyGK
25Santiago AscacíbarMID
5Leandro ParedesMID
18Milton DelgadoMID
36Tomás ArandaMID
Substitutes
26Marco PellegrinoDEF
4Nicolás FigalDEF
24Juan BarinagaDEF
7Exequiel ZeballosFWD
9Milton GiménezFWD
29Ángel RomeroFWD
13Javier GarcíaGK
15Williams AlarcónMID
38Camilo Rey DomenechMID
30Tomás BelmonteMID
20Alan VelascoMID
21Ander HerreraMID
27Malcom BraidaMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiver Plate
No reported absences
Boca Juniors
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.46 (66.7%)
BTTS No1.64 (58.9%)
Value Bets
River Plate Win2.27 (41.3%)
Draw2.96 (26.7%)
Boca Juniors Win3.41 (32.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.65 (33.3%)
Both Teams Score2.14 (41.1%)
