Real Madrid vs Alaves

La LigaRegular Season - 33

Real Madrid

#2 · La Liga

DLLWW

2 - 1

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Referee: J. Martinez

Alaves

#18 · La Liga

DWDLL

69.8%

Home Win

15.2%

Draw

15%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.

BTTS

1.95

BEST ODDS

Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.87 (implied 53.4%) for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.82. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Real Madrid will face Alaves in the La Liga at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Real Madrid has a 69.8% probability of winning this match. Alaves has a 15% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 15.2%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Real Madrid sit 2nd in the table, 16 places above their opponents

Match Preview

Predictions

Strong confidence

Match Result

1 — Real Madrid69.8%1.23

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.565%1.40

Both Teams to Score

Yes55%1.87

✓ OUR PICK

Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

2-0

7.00

14.3%

3-0

7.59

13.2%

2-1

8.65

11.6%

1-0

9.01

11.2%

3-1

9.55

10.5%

4-0

10.57

9.5%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.23	Draw 6.58	Away 12.00
O/U 2.5	Over 1.40	Under 2.88
O/U 1.5	Over 1.11	Under 6.11
O/U 3.5	Over 2.04	Under 1.79
BTTS	Yes 1.87	No 1.88
Double Chance	1X 1.04	12 1.10	X2 4.15

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

94.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

84.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

65%

Over 3.5 Goals

46.7%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Barcelona	32	27	1	4	85	30	55	82	WWWWW
2	Real Madrid	33	23	5	5	68	31	37	74	DWDLW
3	Villarreal	32	19	5	8	57	37	20	62	DWLWD
4	Atletico Madrid	32	17	6	9	53	35	18	57	LLLLW
5	Real Betis	33	12	14	7	49	41	8	50	DWDDL
6	Getafe	32	13	5	14	28	32	-4	44	WLWWL
18	Alaves	32	8	9	15	36	48	-12	33	LDDWD
19	Levante	32	8	8	16	37	50	-13	32	WWLWD
20	Oviedo	32	6	10	16	25	49	-24	28	DWWLW

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Real MadridAlaves

1.94Goals p.g.1.54

1.18Goals conceded p.g.1.69

24%Clean sheets8%

65%Win rate31%

3.12Avg goals in match3.23

Recent Results

Real MadridLAST MATCHES

10 AprReal Madrid1–1GironaLa Liga

07 AprReal Madrid1–2Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League

04 AprMallorca2–1Real MadridLa Liga

22 MarReal Madrid3–2Atletico MadridLa Liga

17 MarManchester City1–2Real MadridUEFA Champions League

14 MarReal Madrid4–1ElcheLa Liga

11Win65%

1Draw6%

5Lost29%

LAST MATCHESAlaves

05 AprAlaves2–2OsasunaLa Liga

22 MarCelta Vigo3–4AlavesLa Liga

13 MarAlaves1–1VillarrealLa Liga

08 MarValencia3–2AlavesLa Liga

27 FebLevante2–0AlavesLa Liga

23 FebAlaves2–2GironaLa Liga

4Win31%

4Draw31%

5Lost38%

Lineups

Confirmed

Real Madrid4-3-3Confirmed

18Álvaro CarrerasDEF

12Trent Alexander-ArnoldDEF

3Éder MilitãoDEF

24Dean HuijsenDEF

7Vinicius JúniorFWD

10Kylian MbappéFWD

15Arda GülerFWD

13Andriy LuninGK

14Aurélien TchouaméniMID

8Federico ValverdeMID

5Jude BellinghamMID

Substitutes

2Dani CarvajalDEF

23Ferland MendyDEF

4David AlabaDEF

22Antonio RudigerDEF

20Fran GarcíaDEF

30Franco MastantuonoFWD

16Gonzalo GarcíaFWD

43Sergio MestreGK

21Brahim DíazMID

19Dani CeballosMID

45Thiago PitarchMID

6Eduardo CamavingaMID

Alaves4-4-2Confirmed

3Youssef Enriquez LekhedimDEF

14Nahuel TenagliaDEF

17Jonny OttoDEF

24Victor ParadaDEF

11Toni MartínezFWD

15Lucas BoyéFWD

1Antonio SiveraGK

7Ángel PérezMID

8Antonio BlancoMID

4Denis SuarezMID

18Jon GuridiMID

Substitutes

27Egoitz MuñozDEF

5Jon PachecoDEF

16Ville KoskiDEF

9Mariano DiazFWD

22Ibrahim DiabatéFWD

34Aitor MañasFWD

13Raúl FernándezGK

31Grégoire SwiderskiGK

6Ander GuevaraMID

10Carles AleñáMID

20Calebe GonçalvesMID

19Pablo IbáñezMID

Unavailable Players

6 players

Real Madrid3

✕R. Asencio

Missing FixtureIllness

✕Rodrygo

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕T. Courtois

Missing FixtureThigh Injury

Alaves3

✕A. Rebbach

Missing FixtureYellow Cards

✕C. Protesoni

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

✕F. Garces

Missing FixtureSuspended

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Real Madrid Win1.23 (69.8%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.40 (65%)

Both Teams Score1.87 (55%)

●Value Bets

Under 2.5 Goals2.88 (35%)

BTTS No1.88 (45%)

●Speculative

Draw6.58 (15.2%)

Alaves Win12.00 (15%)