RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
RB Leipzig
#3 · Bundesliga
WWWLW
3 - 1
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
Union Berlin
#11 · Bundesliga
LDLWL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 60.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , RB Leipzig will face Union Berlin in the Bundesliga at Red Bull Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that RB Leipzig has a 65.5% probability of winning this match. Union Berlin has a 15.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- RB Leipzig are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- RB Leipzig sit 3rd in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — RB Leipzig65.5%1.46
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.560.6%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes57.7%1.63
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.66
13.1%
2-0
8.05
12.5%
1-0
8.54
11.8%
1-1
8.55
11.7%
3-1
10.16
9.9%
3-0
10.57
9.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.46 | Draw 4.67 | Away 6.34 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.52 | Under 2.48 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 5.11 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.34 | Under 1.61 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.63 | No 2.18 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.64 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94%
Over 1.5 Goals81.6%
Over 2.5 Goals60.6%
Over 3.5 Goals40.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | 80 | 79 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 64 | LLWWW |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 56 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 54 | WDLLD |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 52 | LWWDD |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 32 | LLLDL |
| 16 |  FC St. Pauli | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 26 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 24 | WLLLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 19 | LWDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonRB LeipzigUnion Berlin
1.86Goals p.g.0.93
1.43Goals conceded p.g.1.86
14%Clean sheets14%
50%Win rate14%
3.29Avg goals in match2.79
Recent Results
RB LeipzigLAST MATCHES
18 AprEintracht Frankfurt1–3RB LeipzigBundesliga
04 AprWerder Bremen1–2RB LeipzigBundesliga
20 MarRB Leipzig5–01899 HoffenheimBundesliga
15 MarVfB Stuttgart1–0RB LeipzigBundesliga
07 MarRB Leipzig2–1FC AugsburgBundesliga
01 MarHamburger SV1–2RB LeipzigBundesliga
7Win50%
3Draw21%
4Lost29%
LAST MATCHESUnion Berlin
18 AprUnion Berlin1–2VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
05 AprUnion Berlin1–1FC St. PauliBundesliga
21 MarBayern München4–0Union BerlinBundesliga
15 MarSC Freiburg0–1Union BerlinBundesliga
08 MarUnion Berlin1–4Werder BremenBundesliga
28 FebBorussia Mönchengladbach1–0Union BerlinBundesliga
2Win14%
5Draw36%
7Lost50%
Lineups
ConfirmedRB Leipzig4-3-3Confirmed
17Ridle BakuDEF
35Max FinkgräfeDEF
5El Chadaille BitshiabuDEF
4Willi OrbanDEF
49Yan DiomandeFWD
7Antonio NusaFWD
40RômuloFWD
26Maarten VandevoordtGK
14Christoph BaumgartnerMID
24Xaver SchlagerMID
20Assan OuédraogoMID
Substitutes
19Kosta NedeljkovićDEF
39Benjamin HenrichsDEF
16Lukas KlostermannDEF
11Conrad HarderFWD
27Tidiam GomisFWD
10Brajan GrudaFWD
9Johan BakayokoFWD
1Péter GulácsiGK
33Andrija MaksimovićMID
Union Berlin3-4-2-1Confirmed
14Leopold QuerfeldDEF
4Diogo LeiteDEF
5Danilho DoekhiDEF
23Andrej IlićFWD
13András SchäferFWD
7Oliver BurkeFWD
1Frederik RonnowGK
28Christopher TrimmelMID
8Rani KhediraMID
15Tom RotheMID
19Janik HabererMID
Substitutes
18Josip JuranovićDEF
39Derrick KöhnDEF
34Stanley N'SokiDEF
10Ilyas AnsahFWD
9Livan BurcuFWD
25Carl KlausGK
6Aljoscha KemleinMID
33Alex KrálMID
21Tim SkarkeMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersRB Leipzig8
C. Lukeba
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
D. Raum
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
E. Banzuzi
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Klostermann
QuestionableInjury
L. Zingerle
Missing FixtureWrist Injury
S. Sani
Missing FixtureHip Injury
V. Gebel
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
W. Orban
QuestionableThigh Injury
Union Berlin4
D. Preu
Missing FixtureInactive
Jeong Woo-Yeong
Missing FixtureKnock
M. Raab
Missing FixtureHand Injury
R. Skov
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
RB Leipzig Win1.46 (65.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.52 (60.6%)
Both Teams Score1.63 (57.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.48 (39.4%)
BTTS No2.18 (42.3%)
Speculative
Draw4.67 (18.6%)
Union Berlin Win6.34 (15.9%)
