Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad
Rayo Vallecano
#11 · La Liga
WLWWL
3 - 3
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Real Sociedad
#8 · La Liga
DDWLW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.71 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 56.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Rayo Vallecano will face Real Sociedad in the La Liga at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Rayo Vallecano has a 39.7% probability of winning this match. Real Sociedad has a 36.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Rayo Vallecano have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Real Sociedad average 2.0 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Rayo Vallecano39.7%2.79
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.4%1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.7%1.71
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.89
17%
0-1
8.24
12.2%
1-0
8.57
11.7%
1-2
9.07
11.1%
0-0
9.37
10.7%
2-1
9.41
10.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.79 | Draw 3.25 | Away 2.54 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.95 | Under 1.87 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.44 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.31 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.71 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.49 | 12 1.32 | X2 1.43 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.9%
Over 1.5 Goals72.6%
Over 2.5 Goals52.4%
Over 3.5 Goals28.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 32 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 30 | 55 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 33 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 74 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 62 | DWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 57 | LLLLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 50 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Getafe | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 44 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 38 | WLWLD |
| 18 |  Alaves | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Levante | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 32 | WWLWD |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 28 | DWWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonRayo VallecanoReal Sociedad
1.22Goals p.g.2
1.17Goals conceded p.g.1.6
28%Clean sheets27%
39%Win rate53%
2.39Avg goals in match3.6
Recent Results
Rayo VallecanoLAST MATCHES
23 AprRayo Vallecano1–0EspanyolLa Liga
12 AprMallorca3–0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
09 AprRayo Vallecano3–0AEK Athens FCUEFA Europa Conference League
03 AprRayo Vallecano1–0ElcheLa Liga
22 MarBarcelona1–0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
19 MarRayo Vallecano0–1SamsunsporUEFA Europa Conference League
7Win39%
4Draw22%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESReal Sociedad
18 AprAtletico Madrid2–2Real SociedadCopa del Rey
11 AprReal Sociedad3–3AlavesLa Liga
04 AprReal Sociedad2–0LevanteLa Liga
20 MarVillarreal3–1Real SociedadLa Liga
15 MarReal Sociedad3–1OsasunaLa Liga
07 MarAtletico Madrid3–2Real SociedadLa Liga
8Win53%
4Draw27%
3Lost20%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
14 playersRayo Vallecano6
A. Batalla
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
A. Garcia
QuestionableMuscle Injury
D. Mendez
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
I. Akhomach
QuestionableAnkle Injury
Luiz Felipe
QuestionableInjury
R. Nteka
QuestionableInjury
Real Sociedad8
A. Elustondo
QuestionableHead Injury
A. Odriozola
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
D. Caleta-Car
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
G. Guedes
QuestionableToe Injury
I. Ruperez
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
I. Zubeldia
QuestionableThigh Injury
J. Karrikaburu
QuestionableAnkle Injury
Y. Herrera
QuestionableInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.71 (56.7%)
Value Bets
Rayo Vallecano Win2.79 (39.7%)
Real Sociedad Win2.54 (36.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.95 (52.4%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.87 (47.6%)
BTTS No2.05 (43.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.25 (24.1%)
