Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
#11 · La Liga
WLWWL
1 - 0
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Referee: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
Espanyol
#12 · La Liga
LLDLL
★ OUR PICK
Rayo Vallecano to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Espanyol make Rayo Vallecano the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.16
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 2.08 (implied 48.0%) for Rayo Vallecano to Win. Our model calculates a 54.0% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.85. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Rayo Vallecano will face Espanyol in the La Liga at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Rayo Vallecano has a 54% probability of winning this match. Espanyol has a 22.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Rayo Vallecano have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Rayo Vallecano54%2.08
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.2%1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.9%1.73
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.04
16.6%
1-0
7.26
13.8%
2-1
8.20
12.2%
0-0
9.25
10.9%
2-0
9.70
10.4%
0-1
9.99
10%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.08 | Draw 3.34 | Away 3.67 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.95 | Under 1.87 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.40 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.30 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.73 | No 2.03 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.29 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.73 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.7%
Over 1.5 Goals72.4%
Over 2.5 Goals50.2%
Over 3.5 Goals28.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 32 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 30 | 55 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 33 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 74 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 62 | DWLWD |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 57 | LLLLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 50 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Getafe | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 44 | WLWWL |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 38 | WLWLD |
| 12 | Espanyol | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 38 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Levante | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 32 | WWLWD |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 28 | DWWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonRayo VallecanoEspanyol
1.22Goals p.g.1
1.17Goals conceded p.g.2.13
28%Clean sheets7%
39%Win rate0%
2.39Avg goals in match3.13
Recent Results
Rayo VallecanoLAST MATCHES
23 AprRayo Vallecano1–0EspanyolLa Liga
12 AprMallorca3–0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
09 AprRayo Vallecano3–0AEK Athens FCUEFA Europa Conference League
03 AprRayo Vallecano1–0ElcheLa Liga
22 MarBarcelona1–0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
19 MarRayo Vallecano0–1SamsunsporUEFA Europa Conference League
7Win39%
4Draw22%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESEspanyol
23 AprRayo Vallecano1–0EspanyolLa Liga
11 AprBarcelona4–1EspanyolLa Liga
04 AprReal Betis0–0EspanyolLa Liga
21 MarEspanyol1–2GetafeLa Liga
15 MarMallorca2–1EspanyolLa Liga
09 MarEspanyol1–1OviedoLa Liga
0Win0%
5Draw33%
10Lost67%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersRayo Vallecano7
A. Garcia
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
D. Mendez
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
F. Lejeune
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
F. Perez
QuestionableBack Injury
Luiz Felipe
Missing FixtureInjury
N. Mendy
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
R. Nteka
Missing FixtureInjury
Espanyol2
J. Puado
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
U. Gonzalez
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Rayo Vallecano Win2.08 (54%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.95 (50.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.87 (49.8%)
Both Teams Score1.73 (53.9%)
BTTS No2.03 (46.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.34 (23.7%)
Espanyol Win3.67 (22.3%)
