Puebla vs Club Queretaro
Puebla
#17 · Liga MX
LLLDL
1 - 2
Club Queretaro
#14 · Liga MX
DDWDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.99
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.94 (implied 51.6%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.9% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.86. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Puebla will face Club Queretaro in the Liga MX.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Puebla has a 34.9% probability of winning this match. Club Queretaro has a 41.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Club Queretaro are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Both teams average a combined 1.7 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Club Queretaro41.4%2.65
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.9%1.94
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.6%1.64
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.20
16.2%
1-0
8.28
12.1%
2-1
8.66
11.6%
0-1
8.89
11.3%
1-2
9.23
10.9%
0-0
10.46
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.45 | Draw 3.39 | Away 2.65 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.84 | Under 1.94 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.67 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.09 | Under 1.34 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.64 | No 2.12 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.42 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals74.6%
Over 2.5 Goals46.1%
Over 3.5 Goals30.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 14 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 | DDWDW |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonPueblaClub Queretaro
0.75Goals p.g.0.94
1.5Goals conceded p.g.1.25
25%Clean sheets31%
19%Win rate19%
2.25Avg goals in match2.19
Recent Results
PueblaLAST MATCHES
22 AprMonterrey2–1PueblaLiga MX
19 AprGuadalajara Chivas5–0PueblaLiga MX
11 AprPuebla0–1LeonLiga MX
04 AprPuebla1–1FC JuarezLiga MX
22 MarSantos Laguna2–1PueblaLiga MX
14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX
3Win19%
4Draw25%
9Lost56%
LAST MATCHESClub Queretaro
22 AprClub Queretaro1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX
18 AprMazatlán1–1Club QueretaroLiga MX
11 AprClub Queretaro3–1NecaxaLiga MX
08 AprClub Queretaro1–1FC JuarezLiga MX
04 AprClub Queretaro1–0TolucaLiga MX
21 MarAtlas0–0Club QueretaroLiga MX
3Win19%
8Draw50%
5Lost31%
Lineups
ConfirmedPuebla4-1-4-1Confirmed
7Fernando MonarrezDEF
12Iker MorenoDEF
6Nicolás DíazDEF
4Juan Pablo VargasDEF
17Esteban LozanoFWD
28Ricardo GutierrezGK
18Ariel GamarraMID
27Bryan GarnicaMID
16Alonso RamirezMID
24Alejandro OrganistaMID
11Emiliano GómezMID
Substitutes
5Ulises TorresDEF
20Jose PachucaDEF
3Luis Gabriel ReyDEF
195Alvaro BurgosDEF
29Eduardo MustreFWD
33Jesús RodríguezGK
32Ángelo AraosMID
21Owen GonzálezMID
8Miguel RamírezMID
22Carlos BaltazarMID
Club Queretaro4-4-2Confirmed
27Daniel ParraDEF
2Lucas AbasciaDEF
22Bayron DuarteDEF
9Diego ReyesDEF
37Mateo CoronelFWD
31Ali ÁvilaFWD
1José HernándezGK
14Jean UnjanqueMID
6Santiago HomenchenkoMID
4Carlo Adriano GarcíaMID
190Juan Pablo CázaresMID
Substitutes
12Jaime GomezDEF
15Carlos VillanuevaDEF
26Eduardo PerezFWD
25Guillermo AllisonGK
23Juan Eduardo RoblesMID
18Erik DueñasMID
30Jesús Arellano CamachoMID
8Bernardo ParraMID
20Alejandro AlcalaMID
10Lucas RodríguezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersPuebla
No reported absences
Club Queretaro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Puebla Win2.45 (34.9%)
Club Queretaro Win2.65 (41.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.84 (46.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.94 (53.9%)
Both Teams Score1.64 (51.6%)
BTTS No2.12 (48.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.39 (23.7%)