Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
#1 · Ligue 1
WLWWW
1 - 2
Parc des Princes, Paris
Referee: J. Brisard
Lyon
#4 · Ligue 1
WDLLD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.78
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 56.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Paris Saint Germain will face Lyon in the Ligue 1 at Parc des Princes.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Paris Saint Germain has a 67.1% probability of winning this match. Lyon has a 16.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 16.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Paris Saint Germain are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Paris Saint Germain average 2.4 goals per game
- Paris Saint Germain have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches
- With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Paris Saint Germain67.1%1.30
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564%1.39
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.7%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
7.69
13.1%
2-1
8.14
12.4%
3-0
8.72
11.5%
3-1
9.36
10.8%
1-0
9.61
10.5%
1-1
10.56
9.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.30 | Draw 5.92 | Away 8.97 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.39 | Under 2.89 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.10 | Under 6.14 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.01 | Under 1.80 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.70 | No 2.07 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.07 | 12 1.12 | X2 3.48 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.8%
Over 1.5 Goals84.8%
Over 2.5 Goals64%
Over 3.5 Goals47.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonParis Saint GermainLyon
2.39Goals p.g.1.56
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.19
50%Clean sheets38%
72%Win rate44%
3.33Avg goals in match2.75
Recent Results
Paris Saint GermainLAST MATCHES
22 AprParis Saint Germain3–0NantesLigue 1
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
14 AprLiverpool0–2Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
08 AprParis Saint Germain2–0LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
03 AprParis Saint Germain3–1ToulouseLigue 1
21 MarNice0–4Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
13Win72%
2Draw11%
3Lost17%
LAST MATCHESLyon
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
05 AprAngers0–0LyonLigue 1
22 MarLyon1–2MonacoLigue 1
19 MarLyon0–2Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
15 MarLe Havre0–0LyonLigue 1
12 MarCelta Vigo1–1LyonUEFA Europa League
7Win44%
5Draw31%
4Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedParis Saint Germain4-3-3Confirmed
21Lucas HernandezDEF
6Ilya ZabarnyiDEF
2Achraf HakimiDEF
51Willian PachoDEF
14Désiré DouéFWD
9Gonçalo RamosFWD
29Bradley BarcolaFWD
39Matvey SafonovGK
24Senny MayuluMID
4Lucas BeraldoMID
17VitinhaMID
Substitutes
5MarquinhosDEF
10Ousmane DembéléFWD
7Khvicha KvaratskheliaFWD
30Lucas ChevalierGK
19Kang-in LeeMID
87João NevesMID
8Fabián RuizMID
27Dro FernándezMID
33Warren Zaïre-EmeryMID
Lyon5-3-2Confirmed
98Ainsley Maitland-NilesDEF
16Abner ViníciusDEF
21Ruben KluivertDEF
19Moussa NiakhatéDEF
22Clinton MataDEF
17Afonso MoreiraFWD
9EndrickFWD
1Dominik GreifGK
44Khalis MerahMID
23Tyler MortonMID
5Orel MangalaMID
Substitutes
34Steeve KangoDEF
33Hans HateboerDEF
85Noham KamaraDEF
77Roman YaremchukFWD
18Rachid GhezzalFWD
40Rémy DescampsGK
99Noah NarteyMID
6Tanner TessmannMID
7Adam KarabecMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersParis Saint Germain4
D. Doue
QuestionableInjury
F. Ruiz
QuestionableKnee Injury
N. Mendes
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
Q. Ndjantou
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Lyon8
C. Tolisso
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
E. Nuamah
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Fofana
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
N. Kamara
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
N. Tagliafico
Missing FixtureRed Card
O. Mangala
Missing FixtureKnee injury
P. Sulc
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Himbert
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Paris Saint Germain Win1.30 (67.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.39 (64%)
Both Teams Score1.70 (56.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.89 (36%)
BTTS No2.07 (43.3%)
Speculative
Draw5.92 (16.2%)
Lyon Win8.97 (16.7%)
