Paris FC vs Lille
Paris FC
#11 · Ligue 1
WWDWD
0 - 1
Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
Referee: M. Vernice
Lille
#3 · Ligue 1
DWWLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
2.06
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.97 (implied 50.7%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.6% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.80. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Paris FC will face Lille in the Ligue 1 at Stade Jean Bouin.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Paris FC has a 33.6% probability of winning this match. Lille has a 43.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lille sit 3rd in the table, 8 places above their opponents
- Lille have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Lille43.1%1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.6%1.97
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.9%2.05
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.34
15.8%
0-1
7.30
13.7%
1-2
7.85
12.8%
0-2
8.96
11.2%
0-0
10.78
9.4%
1-0
10.94
9.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.83 | Draw 3.59 | Away 1.91 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.84 | Under 1.97 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.26 | Under 3.70 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.03 | Under 1.36 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.71 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.86 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.24 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.1%
Over 1.5 Goals74.6%
Over 2.5 Goals44.4%
Over 3.5 Goals31%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 | Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Paris FC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 38 | WWDWD |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonParis FCLille
1.27Goals p.g.0.88
1.13Goals conceded p.g.0.81
33%Clean sheets44%
40%Win rate44%
2.4Avg goals in match1.69
Recent Results
Paris FCLAST MATCHES
19 AprMetz1–3Paris FCLigue 1
10 AprParis FC4–1MonacoLigue 1
05 AprLorient1–1Paris FCLigue 1
22 MarParis FC3–2Le HavreLigue 1
15 MarStrasbourg0–0Paris FCLigue 1
08 MarLyon1–1Paris FCLigue 1
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%
LAST MATCHESLille
18 AprLille0–0NiceLigue 1
04 AprLille3–0LensLigue 1
22 MarMarseille1–2LilleLigue 1
19 MarAston Villa2–0LilleUEFA Europa League
15 MarRennes1–2LilleLigue 1
12 MarLille0–1Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
7Win44%
4Draw25%
5Lost31%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersParis FC8
J. Krasso
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Lopez
Missing FixtureBack Injury
L. Koleosho
QuestionableInjury
M. Simon
Missing FixtureInjury
P. Hamel
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
R. Riou
Missing FixtureInjury
S. Alakouch
Missing FixtureInjury
T. Kolodziejczak
Missing FixtureInactive
Lille4
H. Igamane
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Caillard
Missing FixtureElbow Injury
N. Bentaleb
Missing FixtureInjury
O. Toure
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.97 (55.6%)
Value Bets
Paris FC Win3.83 (33.6%)
Lille Win1.91 (43.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.84 (44.4%)
Both Teams Score1.71 (49.1%)
BTTS No2.05 (50.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.59 (23.3%)
