Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
#1 · Serie A
WWDDW
1 - 0
Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo
Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
Atletico Paranaense
#6 · Serie A
LWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Palmeiras to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Atletico Paranaense make Palmeiras the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.63
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.58 for Palmeiras to Win. Our model calculates a 59.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Palmeiras will face Atletico Paranaense in the Serie A at Allianz Parque.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Palmeiras has a 59.2% probability of winning this match. Atletico Paranaense has a 19% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Palmeiras have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Palmeiras boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.6 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Palmeiras59.2%1.58
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.5%1.73
Both Teams to Score
No51%1.69
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.44
18.5%
2-0
6.48
15.5%
1-1
6.90
14.5%
2-1
7.86
12.8%
0-0
8.35
12%
3-0
10.78
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.58 | Draw 3.76 | Away 6.02 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.10 | Under 1.73 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.34 | Under 3.10 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.76 | Under 1.24 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.06 | No 1.69 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.24 | X2 2.32 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.9%
Over 1.5 Goals69.8%
Over 2.5 Goals47.5%
Over 3.5 Goals24.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 | Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonPalmeirasAtletico Paranaense
1.79Goals p.g.1.78
0.68Goals conceded p.g.1.17
37%Clean sheets22%
79%Win rate50%
2.47Avg goals in match2.94
Recent Results
PalmeirasLAST MATCHES
19 AprPalmeiras1–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
16 AprPalmeiras2–1Sporting CristalCONMEBOL Libertadores
12 AprCorinthians0–0PalmeirasSerie A
09 AprJunior1–1PalmeirasCONMEBOL Libertadores
05 AprBahia1–2PalmeirasSerie A
03 AprPalmeiras2–1GremioSerie A
15Win79%
3Draw16%
1Lost5%
LAST MATCHESAtletico Paranaense
19 AprPalmeiras1–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
12 AprAtletico Paranaense2–0Chapecoense-scSerie A
05 AprAtletico-MG2–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
01 AprBahia3–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
29 MarAtletico Paranaense4–1BotafogoSerie A
22 MarAtletico Paranaense2–0CoritibaSerie A
9Win50%
2Draw11%
7Lost39%
Lineups
ConfirmedPalmeiras4-2-3-1Confirmed
4Agustín GiayDEF
26MuriloDEF
56Arthur GabrielDEF
15Gustavo GomezDEF
42José LópezFWD
1Carlos MiguelGK
19Ramón SosaMID
32Emiliano MartínezMID
40AllanMID
11Jhon AriasMID
8Andreas PereiraMID
Substitutes
43Luis BenedettiDEF
3Bruno FuchsDEF
12KhellvenDEF
31Luighi HanriFWD
37Riquelme FillipiFWD
9Vitor RoqueFWD
14Marcelo LombaGK
30Lucas EvangelistaMID
18MauricioMID
7Felipe AndersonMID
50Luis PachecoMID
48LarsonMID
Atletico Paranaense3-4-2-1Confirmed
22Carlos TeránDEF
4Arthur DiasDEF
33Juan Felipe AguirreDEF
7Stiven MendozaFWD
53DuduFWD
9Kevin ViverosFWD
23SantosGK
27Camilo PortillaMID
16JadsonMID
14Luiz GustavoMID
37Lucas EsquivelMID
Substitutes
5FelipinhoDEF
26ClaudinhoDEF
6Leonardo DerikDEF
3Leo PinheiroDEF
11IsaacFWD
21LeozinhoFWD
70Renan Peixoto NepomucenoFWD
1MycaelGK
63Diogo RiquelmeMID
8João CruzMID
10Bruno ZapelliMID
47ChiquetiMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersPalmeiras5
J. Piquerez
Missing FixtureInjury
Jefte
Missing FixtureInactive
Marlon Freitas
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Paulinho
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
Vitor Roque
QuestionableInactive
Atletico Paranaense6
Bruninho
Missing FixtureInactive
C. Teran
QuestionableInjury
Chiqueti
QuestionableIllness
G. Benavidez
Missing FixtureInactive
Gilberto Junior
Missing FixtureLoan agreement
Julimar
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Palmeiras Win1.58 (59.2%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.10 (47.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.73 (52.5%)
Both Teams Score2.06 (49%)
BTTS No1.69 (51%)
Speculative
Draw3.76 (21.8%)
Atletico Paranaense Win6.02 (19%)
