Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
Nottingham Forest
#16 · Premier League
WDDWW
4 - 1
City Ground, Nottingham
Referee: T. Kirk
Burnley
#19 · Premier League
LDLLD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.78
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.72 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nottingham Forest will face Burnley in the Premier League at City Ground.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nottingham Forest has a 66.5% probability of winning this match. Burnley has a 13.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Nottingham Forest have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Nottingham Forest66.5%1.48
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.3%1.72
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.1%1.85
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.92
14.5%
2-0
7.04
14.3%
2-1
7.63
13.2%
1-1
7.84
12.8%
3-0
9.97
10.1%
3-1
11.19
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.48 | Draw 4.37 | Away 6.73 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.72 | Under 2.13 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 4.05 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.76 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.89 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.10 | 12 1.19 | X2 2.61 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92%
Over 1.5 Goals76.9%
Over 2.5 Goals55.3%
Over 3.5 Goals34%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 | WDWDD |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNottingham ForestBurnley
1.53Goals p.g.1.42
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.92
35%Clean sheets8%
35%Win rate17%
2.47Avg goals in match3.33
Recent Results
Nottingham ForestLAST MATCHES
19 AprNottingham Forest4–1BurnleyPremier League
12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston VillaPremier League
09 AprFC Porto1–1Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
22 MarTottenham0–3Nottingham ForestPremier League
19 MarFC Midtjylland1–2Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
15 MarNottingham Forest0–0FulhamPremier League
6Win35%
6Draw35%
5Lost29%
LAST MATCHESBurnley
21 MarFulham3–1BurnleyPremier League
14 MarBurnley0–0BournemouthPremier League
03 MarEverton2–0BurnleyPremier League
28 FebBurnley3–4BrentfordPremier League
21 FebChelsea1–1BurnleyPremier League
14 FebBurnley1–2Mansfield TownFA Cup
2Win17%
4Draw33%
6Lost50%
Lineups
ConfirmedNottingham Forest4-2-3-1Confirmed
34Ola AinaDEF
3Neco WilliamsDEF
5MurilloDEF
31Nikola MilenkovićDEF
11Chris WoodFWD
26Matz SelsGK
21Omari HutchinsonMID
8Elliot AndersonMID
6Ibrahim SangaréMID
29Dilane BakwaMID
10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteMID
Substitutes
23JairDEF
4MoratoDEF
25Luca NetzDEF
9Taiwo AwoniyiFWD
19Igor JesusFWD
27Stefan OrtegaGK
24James McAteeMID
22Ryan YatesMID
16Nicolás DomínguezMID
Burnley4-2-3-1Confirmed
18Hjalmar EkdalDEF
3Quilindschy HartmanDEF
5Maxime EstèveDEF
2Kyle WalkerDEF
19Zian FlemmingFWD
1Martin DúbravkaGK
20James Ward-ProwseMID
11Jaidon AnthonyMID
8Lesley UgochukwuMID
10Marcus EdwardsMID
16Florentino LuísMID
Substitutes
12Bashir HumphreysDEF
4Joe WorrallDEF
17Loum TchaounaFWD
27Armando BrojaFWD
9Lyle FosterFWD
7Jacob Bruun LarsenFWD
31Mike TrésorFWD
13Max WeissGK
29Josh LaurentMID
Unavailable Players
13 playersNottingham Forest8
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing FixtureInjury
C. Wood
QuestionableInjury
D. Ndoye
Missing FixtureInjury
E. Anderson
QuestionablePersonal Reasons
John Victor
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Murillo
QuestionableInjury
N. Savona
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
W. Boly
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Burnley5
C. Roberts
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
H. Mejbri
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Beyer
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Cullen
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Z. Amdouni
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Nottingham Forest Win1.48 (66.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.72 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.13 (44.7%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (53.1%)
BTTS No1.89 (46.9%)
Speculative
Draw4.37 (19.6%)
Burnley Win6.73 (13.9%)
