Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Newcastle
#14 · Premier League
LLLWD
1 - 2
St. James' Park, Newcastle
Referee: T. Bramall
Bournemouth
#7 · Premier League
WDDDD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 62.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Newcastle will face Bournemouth in the Premier League at St. James' Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Newcastle has a 40.9% probability of winning this match. Bournemouth has a 37.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Newcastle average 2.0 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Newcastle40.9%2.12
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.562.1%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.5%1.44
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.24
13.8%
2-1
8.45
11.9%
1-2
10.46
9.6%
2-2
10.48
9.6%
1-0
10.67
9.4%
2-0
12.38
8.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.12 | Draw 3.70 | Away 3.23 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.53 | Under 2.43 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 5.00 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.32 | Under 1.61 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.44 | No 2.62 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.35 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.7%
Over 1.5 Goals81.2%
Over 2.5 Goals62.1%
Over 3.5 Goals41%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 52 | 52 | 0 | 49 | DWWDD |
| 14 | Newcastle | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 42 | LLLWW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNewcastleBournemouth
2Goals p.g.1.46
2.07Goals conceded p.g.1
7%Clean sheets31%
43%Win rate38%
4.07Avg goals in match2.46
Recent Results
NewcastleLAST MATCHES
18 AprNewcastle1–2BournemouthPremier League
22 MarNewcastle1–2SunderlandPremier League
18 MarBarcelona7–2NewcastleUEFA Champions League
14 MarChelsea0–1NewcastlePremier League
10 MarNewcastle1–1BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
07 MarNewcastle1–3Manchester CityFA Cup
6Win43%
1Draw7%
7Lost50%
LAST MATCHESBournemouth
18 AprNewcastle1–2BournemouthPremier League
20 MarBournemouth2–2Manchester UnitedPremier League
14 MarBurnley0–0BournemouthPremier League
03 MarBournemouth0–0BrentfordPremier League
28 FebBournemouth1–1SunderlandPremier League
21 FebWest Ham0–0BournemouthPremier League
5Win38%
8Draw62%
0Lost0%
Lineups
ConfirmedNewcastle4-3-3Confirmed
3Lewis HallDEF
4Sven BotmanDEF
12Malick ThiawDEF
21Valentino LivramentoDEF
11Harvey BarnesFWD
18William OsulaFWD
20Anthony ElangaFWD
32Aaron RamsdaleGK
41Jacob RamseyMID
67Lewis MileyMID
8Sandro TonaliMID
Substitutes
2Kieran TrippierDEF
37Alex MurphyDEF
33Dan BurnDEF
9Yoane WissaFWD
27Nick WoltemadeFWD
1Nick PopeGK
28Joe WillockMID
39Bruno GuimarãesMID
23Jacob MurphyMID
Bournemouth4-2-3-1Confirmed
5Marcos SenesiDEF
20Álex JiménezDEF
3Adrien TruffertDEF
23James HillDEF
9EvanilsonFWD
1Đorđe PetrovićGK
8Alex ScottMID
10Ryan ChristieMID
37RayanMID
22Eli Junior KroupiMID
16Marcus TavernierMID
Substitutes
18Bafodé DiakitéDEF
15Adam SmithDEF
21Amine AdliFWD
11Ben Gannon-DoakFWD
26Enes UnalFWD
29Christos MandasGK
27Alex TóthMID
12Tyler AdamsMID
7David BrooksMID
Unavailable Players
7 playersNewcastle4
Bruno Guimaraes
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
E. Krafth
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
F. Schar
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Joelinton
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Bournemouth3
J. Kluivert
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Soler
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
L. Cook
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.53 (62.1%)
Both Teams Score1.44 (64.5%)
Value Bets
Newcastle Win2.12 (40.9%)
Bournemouth Win3.23 (37.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.43 (37.9%)
BTTS No2.62 (35.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.70 (21.9%)
