New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
#7 · Major League Soccer
LWLDL
4 - 4
Yankee Stadium
Referee: S. Boiko
FC Cincinnati
#10 · Major League Soccer
DDLWL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.58
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 64.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , New York City FC will face FC Cincinnati in the Major League Soccer at Yankee Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that New York City FC has a 49.8% probability of winning this match. FC Cincinnati has a 29% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FC Cincinnati average 2.2 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — New York City FC49.8%1.87
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564.2%1.58
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.5%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.04
14.3%
2-1
7.74
13%
1-0
8.95
11.3%
2-0
10.10
10%
2-2
11.08
9.1%
1-2
11.38
8.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.87 | Draw 3.78 | Away 3.77 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.58 | Under 2.35 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.17 | Under 4.85 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.42 | Under 1.53 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.53 | No 2.35 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.25 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.8%
Over 1.5 Goals80.6%
Over 2.5 Goals64.2%
Over 3.5 Goals38.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 7 | New York City FC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 11 | LLDLW |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNew York City FCFC Cincinnati
1.75Goals p.g.2.19
1.56Goals conceded p.g.1.81
19%Clean sheets31%
38%Win rate38%
3.31Avg goals in match4
Recent Results
New York City FCLAST MATCHES
18 AprNew York City FC1–2CharlotteMajor League Soccer
14 AprWestchester SC2–5New York City FCUS Open Cup
11 AprVancouver Whitecaps2–0New York City FCMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York City FC1–1St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
22 MarNew York City FC2–3Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
14 MarNew York City FC3–1Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
4Draw25%
6Lost38%
LAST MATCHESFC Cincinnati
18 AprFC Cincinnati3–3Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
11 AprToronto FC1–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York Red Bulls4–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
22 MarFC Cincinnati4–3CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
20 MarTigres UANL5–1FC CincinnatiCONCACAF Champions League
15 MarNew England Revolution6–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
4Draw25%
6Lost38%
Lineups
ConfirmedNew York City FC4-2-3-1Confirmed
24Tayvon GrayDEF
22Kevin O'TooleDEF
34Raul GustavoDEF
13Thiago MartinsDEF
7Nicolás FernándezFWD
49Matthew FreeseGK
21Aiden O'NeillMID
5Kai TrewinMID
17Hannes WolfMID
10Maxi MoralezMID
26Agustin OjedaMID
Substitutes
2Nico CavalloDEF
19Strahinja TanasijevićDEF
87Arnau FarnosFWD
99Seymour Garfield-ReidFWD
11Talles MagnoFWD
30Tomás RomeroGK
32Jonathan ShoreMID
55Keaton ParksMID
29Máximo CarrizoMID
FC Cincinnati3-4-1-2Confirmed
15Teenage HadebeDEF
4Nick HagglundDEF
24Kyle SmithDEF
9Kévin DenkeyFWD
10EvanderFWD
16Tom BarlowFWD
18Roman CelentanoGK
20Pavel BuchaMID
11Samuel GidiMID
66Ender EcheniqueMID
17Kenji Mboma DemMID
Substitutes
3Gilberto FloresDEF
2Alvas PowellDEF
88Andrei ChirilaDEF
99Ayoub JabbariFWD
13Evan LouroGK
37Stiven JimenezMID
22Gerardo ValenzuelaMID
27Tah AnungaMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersNew York City FC3
A. Martinez
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
A. Perea
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
D. Baiera
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
FC Cincinnati5
B. J. Ramirez Leon
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
K. Fletcher
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Miazga
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
M. Robinson
QuestionableLeg Injury
O. Nwobodo
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.58 (64.2%)
Both Teams Score1.53 (64.5%)
Value Bets
New York City FC Win1.87 (49.8%)
FC Cincinnati Win3.77 (29%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.35 (35.8%)
BTTS No2.35 (35.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.78 (21.2%)
