Necaxa vs Tigres UANL
Necaxa
#13 · Liga MX
DDLWW
1 - 1
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Referee: K. I. Garcia Mendoza
Tigres UANL
#8 · Liga MX
DDLWW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.69
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.66 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Necaxa will face Tigres UANL in the Liga MX at Estadio Victoria.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Necaxa has a 33.1% probability of winning this match. Tigres UANL has a 43.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.1%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Tigres UANL43.8%1.99
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.8%1.66
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.32
15.9%
0-1
7.40
13.6%
1-2
7.87
12.8%
0-2
9.50
10.6%
0-0
10.21
9.9%
1-0
10.53
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.53 | Draw 3.41 | Away 1.99 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.82 | Under 1.95 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.24 | Under 3.69 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.01 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.66 | No 2.09 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.77 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.26 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.7%
Over 1.5 Goals74.7%
Over 2.5 Goals51%
Over 3.5 Goals31%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 22 | DDWLL |
| 13 | Necaxa | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 18 | DDLWW |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNecaxaTigres UANL
1.12Goals p.g.1.7
1.31Goals conceded p.g.1.2
19%Clean sheets25%
31%Win rate40%
2.44Avg goals in match2.9
Recent Results
NecaxaLAST MATCHES
23 AprNecaxa0–0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
18 AprNecaxa1–1Tigres UANLLiga MX
11 AprClub Queretaro3–1NecaxaLiga MX
04 AprNecaxa2–1MazatlánLiga MX
21 MarNecaxa3–0Club TijuanaLiga MX
14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX
5Win31%
3Draw19%
8Lost50%
LAST MATCHESTigres UANL
23 AprAtlas0–0Tigres UANLLiga MX
18 AprNecaxa1–1Tigres UANLLiga MX
16 AprSeattle Sounders3–1Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
11 AprTigres UANL4–1Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
09 AprTigres UANL2–0Seattle SoundersCONCACAF Champions League
04 AprClub Tijuana1–0Tigres UANLLiga MX
8Win40%
5Draw25%
7Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedNecaxa4-1-4-1Confirmed
4Alexis PeñaDEF
33Raúl MartínezDEF
16Cristian CalderónDEF
20Francisco MéndezDEF
9Tomás BadaloniFWD
22Ezequiel UnsaínGK
35Javier RuizMID
6Danny LeyvaMID
10Agustín AlmendraMID
30Ricardo MonrealMID
5Kevin GutiérrezMID
Substitutes
26Emilio LaraDEF
24Franco RossanoDEF
7Kevin RoseroFWD
189Bryan RoqueFWD
188Israel TelloFWD
12Luis JimenezGK
17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaMID
210Joshua PalaciosMID
197Arath Moreno MartinezMID
232Ricardo AlonsoMID
Tigres UANL4-2-3-1Confirmed
14Jesus GarzaDEF
2Francisco ReyesDEF
23Rômulo ZwargDEF
28JoaquimDEF
10André-Pierre GignacFWD
1Nahuel GuzmanGK
8Fernando GorriaranMID
5César AraújoMID
20Marcelo FloresMID
11Juan BrunettaMID
77Ozziel HerreraMID
Substitutes
27Jesús AnguloDEF
33Rafael GuerreroDEF
4Juan José PurataDEF
7Angel CorreaFWD
17Rodrigo AguirreFWD
30Diego SánchezFWD
25Carlos RodríguezGK
16Diego LainezMID
6Juan Pablo VigonMID
204Henrique Simeone KoifmanMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersNecaxa
No reported absences
Tigres UANL
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Necaxa Win3.53 (33.1%)
Tigres UANL Win1.99 (43.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.82 (51%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.95 (49%)
Both Teams Score1.66 (54.8%)
BTTS No2.09 (45.2%)
Speculative
Draw3.41 (23.1%)