Necaxa vs Guadalajara Chivas
Necaxa
#13 · Liga MX
DDLWW
0 - 0
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Guadalajara Chivas
#1 · Liga MX
DWLDW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.55 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Necaxa will face Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX at Estadio Victoria.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Necaxa has a 25.7% probability of winning this match. Guadalajara Chivas has a 54.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Guadalajara Chivas sit 1st in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- Guadalajara Chivas have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Guadalajara Chivas54.7%1.51
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555.9%1.55
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.8%1.62
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
7.45
13.5%
1-1
8.00
12.6%
0-2
8.02
12.5%
0-1
8.20
12.2%
1-3
10.33
9.8%
0-3
11.08
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 5.36 | Draw 4.33 | Away 1.51 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.55 | Under 2.38 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.85 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.35 | Under 1.54 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.62 | No 2.16 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.40 | 12 1.18 | X2 1.14 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.9%
Over 1.5 Goals80.7%
Over 2.5 Goals55.9%
Over 3.5 Goals39.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 13 | Necaxa | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 18 | DDLWW |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNecaxaGuadalajara Chivas
1.12Goals p.g.1.89
1.31Goals conceded p.g.0.94
19%Clean sheets50%
31%Win rate67%
2.44Avg goals in match2.83
Recent Results
NecaxaLAST MATCHES
23 AprNecaxa0–0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
18 AprNecaxa1–1Tigres UANLLiga MX
11 AprClub Queretaro3–1NecaxaLiga MX
04 AprNecaxa2–1MazatlánLiga MX
21 MarNecaxa3–0Club TijuanaLiga MX
14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX
5Win31%
3Draw19%
8Lost50%
LAST MATCHESGuadalajara Chivas
23 AprNecaxa0–0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
19 AprGuadalajara Chivas5–0PueblaLiga MX
11 AprTigres UANL4–1Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
06 AprGuadalajara Chivas2–2U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX
30 MarAtlas0–1Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
22 MarMonterrey2–3Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
12Win67%
3Draw17%
3Lost17%
Lineups
ConfirmedNecaxa4-4-2Confirmed
33Raúl MartínezDEF
3Agustín OliverosDEF
16Cristian CalderónDEF
4Alexis PeñaDEF
9Tomás BadaloniFWD
8Lorenzo FaravelliFWD
22Ezequiel UnsaínGK
35Javier RuizMID
5Kevin GutiérrezMID
6Danny LeyvaMID
30Ricardo MonrealMID
Substitutes
24Franco RossanoDEF
20Francisco MéndezDEF
26Emilio LaraDEF
188Israel TelloFWD
7Kevin RoseroFWD
189Bryan RoqueFWD
12Luis JimenezGK
232Ricardo AlonsoMID
10Agustín AlmendraMID
17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaMID
Guadalajara Chivas3-4-3Confirmed
37Richard LedezmaDEF
23Daniel AguirreDEF
19Diego CampilloDEF
10Efrain AlvarezFWD
7Luis RomoFWD
34Armando GonzálezFWD
13Oscar WhalleyGK
11Brian GutierrezMID
5Bryan GonzálezMID
28Fernando GonzálezMID
17Ricardo MarínMID
Substitutes
3Gilberto SepúlvedaDEF
24Miguel GómezDEF
4Miguel TapiasDEF
67Sergio Armando Aguayo CastilloFWD
25Roberto AlvaradoFWD
31Yael PadillaFWD
1Raúl RangelGK
226Santiago SandovalMID
26Hugo CamberosMID
18Jonathan PerezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersNecaxa
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.55 (55.9%)
Value Bets
Necaxa Win5.36 (25.7%)
Guadalajara Chivas Win1.51 (54.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.38 (44.1%)
Both Teams Score1.62 (54.8%)
BTTS No2.16 (45.2%)
Speculative
Draw4.33 (19.6%)