Nacional vs Alverca
Nacional
#14 · Primeira Liga
WWLLD
1 - 0
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal
Referee: M. Nogueira
Alverca
#10 · Primeira Liga
LWLDD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.71
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Nacional will face Alverca in the Primeira Liga at Estádio da Madeira.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Nacional has a 46.1% probability of winning this match. Alverca has a 30.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.7%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Nacional46.1%2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.7%1.68
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.13
16.4%
1-0
7.75
13%
2-1
8.36
12.1%
0-1
9.45
10.7%
0-0
9.82
10.3%
1-2
10.01
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.25 | Draw 3.36 | Away 3.07 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.87 | Under 1.92 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.26 | Under 3.59 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.12 | Under 1.33 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.68 | No 2.08 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.35 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.4%
Over 1.5 Goals74%
Over 2.5 Goals49%
Over 3.5 Goals29.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 10 | Alverca | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 35 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Nacional | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 28 | WLWLL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonNacionalAlverca
1.07Goals p.g.1
1.29Goals conceded p.g.1.71
29%Clean sheets14%
21%Win rate21%
2.36Avg goals in match2.71
Recent Results
NacionalLAST MATCHES
18 AprNacional1–0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
04 AprNacional2–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarFamalicao1–0NacionalPrimeira Liga
15 MarNacional0–1EstorilPrimeira Liga
07 MarMoreirense1–1NacionalPrimeira Liga
28 FebNacional1–2SC BragaPrimeira Liga
3Win21%
3Draw21%
8Lost57%
LAST MATCHESAlverca
18 AprNacional1–0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
04 AprRio Ave1–2AlvercaPrimeira Liga
22 MarAlverca1–4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
14 MarGIL Vicente2–2AlvercaPrimeira Liga
07 MarAlverca0–0AVSPrimeira Liga
28 FebGuimaraes1–1AlvercaPrimeira Liga
3Win21%
6Draw43%
5Lost36%
Lineups
ConfirmedNacional4-3-3Confirmed
33Francisco GonçalvesDEF
5Jose GomesDEF
16Alan NúñezDEF
38Ze VitorDEF
27Gabriel VeronFWD
9Jesús RamírezFWD
11Paulinho BóiaFWD
1KaiqueGK
15Chiheb LabidiMID
10Daniel JúniorMID
28LizieroMID
Substitutes
2João AurélioDEF
19Lucas JoaoFWD
99PabloFWD
7WitiFWD
50KevynGK
30Martim Gustavo WattsMID
26Joel SilvaMID
22Filipe SoaresMID
6Matheus DiasMID
Alverca3-4-3Confirmed
33Bastien MeupiyouDEF
4Kaiky NavesDEF
5Sergi GomezDEF
20FigueiredoFWD
91Sandro LimaFWD
10ChiquinhoFWD
31Matheus MendesGK
2Nabil TouaiziMID
26RhaldneyMID
18LincolnMID
12Isaac JamesMID
Substitutes
82Diogo SpencerDEF
14Steven BaseyaDEF
9Marko MilovanovićFWD
19Mathis ClairiciaFWD
11Cédric NuozziFWD
1Mateus OliveiraGK
35Zakaria KassaryMID
6Davy GuiMID
17Vasco MoreiraMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersNacional
No reported absences
Alverca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Nacional Win2.25 (46.1%)
Alverca Win3.07 (30.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.87 (49%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.92 (51%)
Both Teams Score1.68 (53.7%)
BTTS No2.08 (46.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.36 (23.7%)
