Moreirense vs Estoril
Moreirense
#8 · Primeira Liga
WDLLL
1 - 0
Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Referee: M. Torres
Estoril
#9 · Primeira Liga
LLLWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.66
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.62 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 56.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Moreirense will face Estoril in the Primeira Liga at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Moreirense has a 40.2% probability of winning this match. Estoril has a 36.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.3%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Moreirense40.2%3.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.8%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.6%1.62
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.30
15.9%
1-2
8.44
11.9%
0-1
8.50
11.9%
2-1
9.97
10.1%
1-0
10.08
10%
0-0
10.43
9.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.00 | Draw 3.39 | Away 2.27 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.77 | Under 2.03 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.23 | Under 3.85 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.84 | Under 1.38 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.62 | No 2.19 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.60 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.36 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals75.7%
Over 2.5 Goals52.8%
Over 3.5 Goals32.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 8 | Moreirense | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 39 | WDLLL |
| 9 | Estoril | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 37 | LLLLW |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMoreirenseEstoril
0.8Goals p.g.1.93
1.13Goals conceded p.g.1.64
27%Clean sheets21%
33%Win rate43%
1.93Avg goals in match3.57
Recent Results
MoreirenseLAST MATCHES
20 AprMoreirense1–0EstorilPrimeira Liga
10 AprFamalicao1–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
04 AprMoreirense0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
15 MarFC Porto3–0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
07 MarMoreirense1–1NacionalPrimeira Liga
5Win33%
3Draw20%
7Lost47%
LAST MATCHESEstoril
20 AprMoreirense1–0EstorilPrimeira Liga
06 AprArouca3–2EstorilPrimeira Liga
22 MarEstoril1–2Rio AvePrimeira Liga
15 MarNacional0–1EstorilPrimeira Liga
07 MarEstoril0–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
27 FebSporting CP3–0EstorilPrimeira Liga
6Win43%
2Draw14%
6Lost43%
Lineups
ConfirmedMoreirense4-2-3-1Confirmed
66Gilberto BatistaDEF
2Diogo TravassosDEF
4Kevyn MonteiroDEF
70Fabiano SouzaDEF
11AlanFWD
13André FerreiraGK
21Rodrigo AlonsoMID
25Afonso AssisMID
10Kiko BondosoMID
8Mateja StjepanovićMID
78LandersonMID
Substitutes
71Leandro SantosDEF
7Cedric TeguiaFWD
9Luís SemedoFWD
99Yan MaranhãoFWD
22Caio SeccoGK
16MikaGK
30Jimi GowerMID
Estoril3-4-3Confirmed
4FerroDEF
5Antef TsounguiDEF
25Felix BacherDEF
14Yanis BegraouiFWD
21PizziFWD
70PeixinhoFWD
16Martin TurkGK
6Jandro OrellanaMID
24Pedro AmaralMID
22Pedro CarvalhoMID
8XekaMID
Substitutes
20Gonçalo CostaDEF
9Alejandro MarquésFWD
31Diogo DiasGK
12Joao CarvalhoMID
97Luis GomesMID
10Jordan HolsgroveMID
7Nodar LominadzeMID
99Rafik GuitaneMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersMoreirense
No reported absences
Estoril
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.62 (56.6%)
Value Bets
Moreirense Win3.00 (40.2%)
Estoril Win2.27 (36.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.77 (52.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.03 (47.2%)
BTTS No2.19 (43.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.39 (23.3%)
