Monterrey vs Puebla
Monterrey
#11 · Liga MX
WLDLL
2 - 1
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Puebla
#17 · Liga MX
LLLDL
★ OUR PICK
Monterrey to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Puebla make Monterrey the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.50 for Monterrey to Win. Our model calculates a 64.2% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Monterrey will face Puebla in the Liga MX at Estadio BBVA.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Monterrey has a 64.2% probability of winning this match. Puebla has a 15.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 2.0 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Monterrey64.2%1.50
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.2%1.53
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.9%1.62
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.50
13.4%
1-1
7.97
12.6%
2-0
8.02
12.5%
1-0
8.28
12.1%
3-1
10.33
9.8%
3-0
11.12
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.50 | Draw 4.32 | Away 5.53 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.53 | Under 2.38 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 4.92 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.36 | Under 1.55 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.62 | No 2.16 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.13 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.44 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93%
Over 1.5 Goals81%
Over 2.5 Goals54.2%
Over 3.5 Goals39.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 11 | Monterrey | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 18 | WLDLL |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMonterreyPuebla
1.24Goals p.g.0.75
1.41Goals conceded p.g.1.5
24%Clean sheets25%
24%Win rate19%
2.65Avg goals in match2.25
Recent Results
MonterreyLAST MATCHES
22 AprMonterrey2–1PueblaLiga MX
19 AprMonterrey1–3PachucaLiga MX
12 AprAtlas0–0MonterreyLiga MX
04 AprMonterrey1–2Atletico San LuisLiga MX
22 MarMonterrey2–3Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
18 MarCruz Azul1–1MonterreyCONCACAF Champions League
4Win24%
5Draw29%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESPuebla
22 AprMonterrey2–1PueblaLiga MX
19 AprGuadalajara Chivas5–0PueblaLiga MX
11 AprPuebla0–1LeonLiga MX
04 AprPuebla1–1FC JuarezLiga MX
22 MarSantos Laguna2–1PueblaLiga MX
14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX
3Win19%
4Draw25%
9Lost56%
Lineups
ConfirmedMonterrey4-2-3-1Confirmed
2Ricardo ChávezDEF
13Carlos SalcedoDEF
4Victor GuzmánDEF
21Luis ReyesDEF
27Roberto de la RosaFWD
25Santiago MeleGK
11Luca OrellanoMID
5Fidel AmbrízMID
8Oliver TorresMID
29Lucas OcamposMID
17Jesus CoronaMID
Substitutes
3Gerardo ArteagaDEF
19Alonso AcevesDEF
20Uros DjurdjevicFWD
22Luis CardenasGK
35Iker FimbresMID
10Sergio CanalesMID
246Omar GalvezMID
32Sebastian RodriguezMID
194Cristian ReyesMID
14Erick AguirreMID
Puebla3-4-2-1Confirmed
6Nicolás DíazDEF
192Eduardo NavarroDEF
4Juan Pablo VargasDEF
25Alexis CaneloFWD
11Emiliano GómezFWD
27Bryan GarnicaFWD
28Ricardo GutierrezGK
16Alonso RamirezMID
12Iker MorenoMID
24Alejandro OrganistaMID
18Ariel GamarraMID
Substitutes
3Luis Gabriel ReyDEF
5Ulises TorresDEF
20Jose PachucaDEF
17Esteban LozanoFWD
29Eduardo MustreFWD
33Jesús RodríguezGK
8Miguel RamírezMID
32Ángelo AraosMID
22Carlos BaltazarMID
21Owen GonzálezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Monterrey Win1.50 (64.2%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.53 (54.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.38 (45.8%)
Both Teams Score1.62 (53.9%)
BTTS No2.16 (46.1%)
Speculative
Draw4.32 (20%)
Puebla Win5.53 (15.9%)