Monterrey vs Pachuca
Monterrey
#11 · Liga MX
WLDLL
1 - 3
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Referee: D. Quintero
Pachuca
#3 · Liga MX
LWWWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.58
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 57.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Monterrey will face Pachuca in the Liga MX at Estadio BBVA.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Monterrey has a 42.2% probability of winning this match. Pachuca has a 35.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Pachuca have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Pachuca sit 3rd in the table, 8 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Monterrey42.2%2.11
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.1%1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes57.4%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.73
14.9%
2-1
8.10
12.4%
1-0
9.21
10.9%
1-2
10.14
10%
2-2
10.91
9.2%
2-0
11.12
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.11 | Draw 3.58 | Away 3.05 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.64 | Under 2.21 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.18 | Under 4.39 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.54 | Under 1.47 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.53 | No 2.34 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.33 | 12 1.25 | X2 1.68 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.3%
Over 1.5 Goals78.8%
Over 2.5 Goals54.1%
Over 3.5 Goals36.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 11 | Monterrey | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 18 | WLDLL |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMonterreyPachuca
1.24Goals p.g.1.56
1.41Goals conceded p.g.1.06
24%Clean sheets19%
24%Win rate56%
2.65Avg goals in match2.62
Recent Results
MonterreyLAST MATCHES
22 AprMonterrey2–1PueblaLiga MX
19 AprMonterrey1–3PachucaLiga MX
12 AprAtlas0–0MonterreyLiga MX
04 AprMonterrey1–2Atletico San LuisLiga MX
22 MarMonterrey2–3Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
18 MarCruz Azul1–1MonterreyCONCACAF Champions League
4Win24%
5Draw29%
8Lost47%
LAST MATCHESPachuca
23 AprClub Tijuana3–1PachucaLiga MX
19 AprMonterrey1–3PachucaLiga MX
12 AprPachuca4–2Santos LagunaLiga MX
05 AprCruz Azul1–2PachucaLiga MX
22 MarPachuca1–1TolucaLiga MX
14 MarAtletico San Luis1–1PachucaLiga MX
9Win56%
4Draw25%
3Lost19%
Lineups
ConfirmedMonterrey4-2-3-1Confirmed
21Luis ReyesDEF
33Stefan MedinaDEF
2Ricardo ChávezDEF
13Carlos SalcedoDEF
27Roberto de la RosaFWD
22Luis CardenasGK
17Jesus CoronaMID
5Fidel AmbrízMID
8Oliver TorresMID
11Luca OrellanoMID
29Lucas OcamposMID
Substitutes
3Gerardo ArteagaDEF
4Victor GuzmánDEF
19Alonso AcevesDEF
20Uros DjurdjevicFWD
25Santiago MeleGK
14Erick AguirreMID
10Sergio CanalesMID
246Omar GalvezMID
194Cristian ReyesMID
32Sebastian RodriguezMID
Pachuca4-2-3-1Confirmed
14Carlos SánchezDEF
4Eduardo BauermannDEF
2Sergio BarretoDEF
12Brian GarcíaDEF
23Salomón RondónFWD
25Carlos MorenoGK
8Víctor GuzmánMID
16Christian RiveraMID
29KenedyMID
28Elías MontielMID
11Oussama IdrissiMID
Substitutes
184Cristobal AlfaroDEF
21René LópezDEF
13Jorge BerlangaDEF
187Gael ÁlvarezFWD
7Luis QuinonesFWD
10Enner ValenciaFWD
18Alexei DomínguezFWD
31Jose EulogioGK
26Alan BautistaMID
188Sergio RodríguezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonterrey
No reported absences
Pachuca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.53 (57.4%)
Value Bets
Monterrey Win2.11 (42.2%)
Pachuca Win3.05 (35.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.64 (54.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.21 (45.9%)
BTTS No2.34 (42.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.58 (22.4%)