Monaco vs Auxerre
Monaco
#7 · Ligue 1
DLWWW
2 - 2
Stade Louis II, Monaco
Referee: T. Leonard
Auxerre
#16 · Ligue 1
DDWLD
★ OUR PICK
Monaco to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Auxerre make Monaco the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Monaco to Win. Our model calculates a 59.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Monaco will face Auxerre in the Ligue 1 at Stade Louis II.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Monaco has a 59.9% probability of winning this match. Auxerre has a 19.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Monaco have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Monaco sit 7th in the table, 9 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Monaco59.9%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.554.2%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.5%1.72
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-1
7.49
13.4%
1-0
7.49
13.4%
1-1
7.69
13.1%
2-0
7.71
13%
3-1
10.96
9.2%
3-0
11.16
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.56 | Draw 4.28 | Away 5.49 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.65 | Under 2.25 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.19 | Under 4.40 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.57 | Under 1.48 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.72 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.14 | 12 1.20 | X2 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.5%
Over 1.5 Goals78.7%
Over 2.5 Goals54.2%
Over 3.5 Goals36.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 7 | Monaco | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 45 | 7 | 50 | DLWWW |
| 16 | Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMonacoAuxerre
1.93Goals p.g.0.86
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.14
33%Clean sheets29%
53%Win rate14%
3.27Avg goals in match2
Recent Results
MonacoLAST MATCHES
19 AprMonaco2–2AuxerreLigue 1
10 AprParis FC4–1MonacoLigue 1
05 AprMonaco2–1MarseilleLigue 1
22 MarLyon1–2MonacoLigue 1
14 MarMonaco2–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
06 MarParis Saint Germain1–3MonacoLigue 1
8Win53%
4Draw27%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESAuxerre
19 AprMonaco2–2AuxerreLigue 1
05 AprLe Havre1–1AuxerreLigue 1
21 MarAuxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
13 MarMarseille1–0AuxerreLigue 1
07 MarAuxerre0–0StrasbourgLigue 1
01 MarLorient2–2AuxerreLigue 1
2Win14%
6Draw43%
6Lost43%
Lineups
ConfirmedMonaco3-4-2-1Confirmed
13Christian MawissaDEF
5Thilo KehrerDEF
25Wout FaesDEF
9Folarin BalogunFWD
11Maghnes AklioucheFWD
31Ansu FatiFWD
1Lukáš HrádeckýGK
23Aladji BambaMID
27Krépin DiattaMID
6Denis ZakariaMID
4Jordan TezeMID
Substitutes
3Eric DierDEF
24Simon AdingraFWD
14Mika BierethFWD
16Philipp KöhnGK
28Mamadou CoulibalyMID
10Aleksandr GolovinMID
8Paul PogbaMID
41Pape CabralMID
49Ilane TouréMID
Auxerre4-2-3-1Confirmed
20Sinaly DiomandéDEF
14Gideon MensahDEF
24Bryan OkohDEF
29Marvin SenayaDEF
10Lassine SinayokoFWD
16Donovan LeonGK
42Elisha OwusuMID
22Fredrik OppegårdMID
19Danny NamasoMID
28Romain FaivreMID
5Kévin DanoisMID
Substitutes
4Francisco SierraltaDEF
27Lamine SyDEF
44Mamoudou CissokhoFWD
9Sékou MaraFWD
7Josué CasimirFWD
40Théo De PercinGK
30Tom NegrelGK
8Naouirou AhamadaMID
18Assane DiousséMID
Unavailable Players
14 playersMonaco9
A. Golovin
QuestionableMuscle Injury
Caio Henrique
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
K. Ouattara
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Camara
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
M. Salisu
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. Brunner
Missing FixtureInjury
S. Idumbo
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
T. Minamino
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Vanderson
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
Auxerre5
C. Akpa
QuestionableInjury
L. Coulibaly
Missing FixtureInjury
N. Buayi-Kiala
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
O. El Azzouzi
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
T. Devernois
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Monaco Win1.56 (59.9%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.65 (54.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.25 (45.8%)
Both Teams Score1.72 (53.5%)
BTTS No2.05 (46.5%)
Speculative
Draw4.28 (20.1%)
Auxerre Win5.49 (19.9%)
