Metz vs Paris FC
Metz
#18 · Ligue 1
LLDDL
1 - 3
Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Referee: J. Stinat
Paris FC
#11 · Ligue 1
WWDWD
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.65 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Metz will face Paris FC in the Ligue 1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Metz has a 27.8% probability of winning this match. Paris FC has a 49.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Paris FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Both teams average a combined 1.9 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Paris FC49.2%2.21
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551.1%1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.6%1.65
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.26
16%
1-2
8.19
12.3%
0-1
8.22
12.2%
2-1
10.31
9.8%
1-0
10.31
9.8%
0-2
10.78
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.19 | Draw 3.46 | Away 2.21 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.82 | Under 2.01 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.24 | Under 3.83 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.92 | Under 1.39 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.65 | No 2.16 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.66 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.34 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.3%
Over 1.5 Goals75.4%
Over 2.5 Goals51.1%
Over 3.5 Goals32.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 11 | Paris FC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 38 | WWDWD |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 | Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMetzParis FC
0.67Goals p.g.1.27
2.2Goals conceded p.g.1.13
20%Clean sheets33%
0%Win rate40%
2.87Avg goals in match2.4
Recent Results
MetzLAST MATCHES
19 AprMetz1–3Paris FCLigue 1
10 AprMarseille3–1MetzLigue 1
05 AprMetz0–0NantesLigue 1
22 MarRennes0–0MetzLigue 1
15 MarMetz3–4ToulouseLigue 1
08 MarLens3–0MetzLigue 1
0Win0%
4Draw27%
11Lost73%
LAST MATCHESParis FC
19 AprMetz1–3Paris FCLigue 1
10 AprParis FC4–1MonacoLigue 1
05 AprLorient1–1Paris FCLigue 1
22 MarParis FC3–2Le HavreLigue 1
15 MarStrasbourg0–0Paris FCLigue 1
08 MarLyon1–1Paris FCLigue 1
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
19 playersMetz8
B. Munongo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Sarr
QuestionableInactive
B. Traore
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
G. Abuashvili
Missing FixtureInactive
I. Guerti
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Mangondo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Colin
Missing FixtureInjury
O. Ba
Missing FixtureInjury
Paris FC11
J. Krasso
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Lopez
Missing FixtureBack Injury
M. Cafaro
QuestionableInactive
M. Simon
Missing FixtureInjury
P. Hamel
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
P. Lees-Melou
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
R. Riou
Missing FixtureInjury
S. Alakouch
Missing FixtureInjury
T. De Smet
QuestionableInactive
T. Kolodziejczak
Missing FixtureInactive
V. Marchetti
QuestionableLower Back Injury
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Metz Win3.19 (27.8%)
Paris FC Win2.21 (49.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.82 (51.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.01 (48.9%)
Both Teams Score1.65 (53.6%)
BTTS No2.16 (46.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.46 (23%)
