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Melbourne City vs Adelaide United

A-LeagueRegular Season - 26
Melbourne City
#5 · A-League
WWWDW
1 - 2
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Referee: A. King
Adelaide United
#3 · A-League
WDDWD
47.3%
Home Win
22.1%
Draw
30.6%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 60.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Melbourne City will face Adelaide United in the A-League at AAMI Park.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Melbourne City has a 47.3% probability of winning this match. Adelaide United has a 30.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.1%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Melbourne City are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Adelaide United are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Melbourne City47.3%2.02
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.558.3%1.65
Both Teams to Score
Yes60.9%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.79
14.8%
2-1
7.97
12.6%
1-0
8.91
11.3%
2-0
10.64
9.5%
1-2
10.73
9.4%
2-2
11.15
9.1%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 2.02Draw 3.61Away 3.34
O/U 2.5Over 1.65Under 2.20
O/U 1.5Over 1.19Under 4.34
O/U 3.5Over 2.56Under 1.47
BTTSYes 1.54No 2.34
Double Chance1X 1.3012 1.26X2 1.75

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
92.6%
Over 1.5 Goals
78.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
58.3%
Over 3.5 Goals
36.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

A-League Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Newcastle Jets
25143851391245
DDLWL
2
Auckland
25118640271341
LDDLW
3
Adelaide United
2511774435940
WDDWD
4
Sydney
2511593123838
DWDLL
5
Melbourne City
2510873231138
WWWWD
6
Melbourne Victory
2510784233937
DDLWW
10
Perth Glory
2577113038-828
DWDDL
11
Brisbane Roar
2568112634-826
LDDLD
12
Western Sydney Wanderers
2556142741-1421
LLLLD

Key Statistics

2025 Season
Melbourne CityAdelaide United
1.4Goals p.g.1.87
1.47Goals conceded p.g.1.47
27%Clean sheets7%
40%Win rate40%
2.87Avg goals in match3.33

Recent Results

Melbourne CityLAST MATCHES
18 AprBrisbane Roar2–3Melbourne CityA-League
07 AprMelbourne City2–1Central Coast MarinersA-League
04 AprMelbourne City3–0Western Sydney WanderersA-League
22 MarPerth Glory1–1Melbourne CityA-League
17 MarSydney0–1Melbourne CityA-League
10 MarBuriram United0–0Melbourne CityAFC Champions League Elite
6Win40%
6Draw40%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESAdelaide United
19 AprAdelaide United3–1MacarthurA-League
11 AprNewcastle Jets1–1Adelaide UnitedA-League
03 AprAdelaide United1–1AucklandA-League
20 MarWestern Sydney Wanderers2–4Adelaide UnitedA-League
14 MarCentral Coast Mariners1–1Adelaide UnitedA-League
06 MarAdelaide United1–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Melbourne City

No reported absences

Adelaide United

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.65 (58.3%)
Both Teams Score1.54 (60.9%)
●Value Bets
Melbourne City Win2.02 (47.3%)
Adelaide United Win3.34 (30.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.20 (41.7%)
BTTS No2.34 (39.1%)
●Speculative
Draw3.61 (22.1%)
Melbourne City vs Adelaide United Predictions, Stats, H2H - 26 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro