Mazatlán vs Toluca
Mazatlán
#16 · Liga MX
WDLLD
4 - 3
Estadio El Encanto
Toluca
#5 · Liga MX
LLWDW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.58
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 59.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Mazatlán will face Toluca in the Liga MX at Estadio El Encanto.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Mazatlán has a 25.9% probability of winning this match. Toluca has a 56% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Toluca sit 5th in the table, 11 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — Toluca56%1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563.8%1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes59.7%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
7.76
13%
0-2
8.63
11.7%
1-1
9.16
11%
0-1
9.74
10.3%
1-3
9.81
10.3%
0-3
10.86
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 5.76 | Draw 4.74 | Away 1.44 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.41 | Under 2.74 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 5.88 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.07 | Under 1.72 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.54 | No 2.31 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.65 | 12 1.16 | X2 1.12 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals84.1%
Over 2.5 Goals63.8%
Over 3.5 Goals45.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 16 | Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMazatlánToluca
1.31Goals p.g.1.89
2Goals conceded p.g.1.05
6%Clean sheets37%
25%Win rate47%
3.31Avg goals in match2.95
Recent Results
MazatlánLAST MATCHES
23 AprMazatlán4–3TolucaLiga MX
18 AprMazatlán1–1Club QueretaroLiga MX
12 AprU.N.A.M. - Pumas3–1MazatlánLiga MX
04 AprNecaxa2–1MazatlánLiga MX
21 MarMazatlán1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX
16 MarClub America2–0MazatlánLiga MX
4Win25%
3Draw19%
9Lost56%
LAST MATCHESToluca
23 AprMazatlán4–3TolucaLiga MX
19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX
16 AprLos Angeles Galaxy0–3TolucaCONCACAF Champions League
13 AprToluca1–1Atletico San LuisLiga MX
09 AprToluca4–2Los Angeles GalaxyCONCACAF Champions League
04 AprClub Queretaro1–0TolucaLiga MX
9Win47%
6Draw32%
4Lost21%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMazatlán
No reported absences
Toluca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Toluca Win1.44 (56%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.41 (63.8%)
Both Teams Score1.54 (59.7%)
Value Bets
Mazatlán Win5.76 (25.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.74 (36.2%)
BTTS No2.31 (40.3%)
Speculative
Draw4.74 (18.1%)