Home›Ligue 1›Marseille vs Nice Predictions

Marseille vs Nice

Ligue 1Regular Season - 31
Marseille
#6 · Ligue 1
LWLLW
1 - 1
Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
Referee: W. Delajod
Nice
#15 · Ligue 1
WDDLL
58.7%
Home Win
18.9%
Draw
22.4%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.60
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 59.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Marseille will face Nice in the Ligue 1 at Orange Vélodrome.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Marseille has a 58.7% probability of winning this match. Nice has a 22.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Marseille sit 6th in the table, 9 places above their opponents

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Moderate confidence
Match Result
1 — Marseille58.7%1.48
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.561.4%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes59.4%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
2-1
7.70
13.1%
1-1
8.72
11.5%
2-0
8.75
11.5%
1-0
9.50
10.6%
3-1
10.08
10%
3-0
11.16
9%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.48Draw 4.65Away 5.91
O/U 2.5Over 1.44Under 2.71
O/U 1.5Over 1.12Under 5.74
O/U 3.5Over 2.13Under 1.72
BTTSYes 1.56No 2.32
Double Chance1X 1.1312 1.17X2 2.58

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals
83.6%
Over 2.5 Goals
61.4%
Over 3.5 Goals
44.6%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Ligue 1 Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Paris Saint Germain
29213565254066
WLWWL
2
Lens
30203760322863
DWLWL
3
Lille
30166849341554
DWWWW
4
Lyon
30166845301554
WWDLD
5
Rennes
30158752411153
WWWDL
6
Marseille
301641058401852
LWLLW
15
Nice
3078153456-2229
DDLLW
16
Auxerre
30510152539-1425
DDDWL
17
Nantes
3048182549-2420
LDDDL
18
Metz
3036212766-3915
LLDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season
MarseilleNice
1.47Goals p.g.1.12
1.73Goals conceded p.g.1.5
20%Clean sheets31%
40%Win rate25%
3.2Avg goals in match2.62

Recent Results

MarseilleLAST MATCHES
18 AprLorient2–0MarseilleLigue 1
10 AprMarseille3–1MetzLigue 1
05 AprMonaco2–1MarseilleLigue 1
22 MarMarseille1–2LilleLigue 1
13 MarMarseille1–0AuxerreLigue 1
07 MarToulouse0–1MarseilleLigue 1
6Win40%
3Draw20%
6Lost40%
LAST MATCHESNice
22 AprStrasbourg0–2NiceCoupe de France
18 AprLille0–0NiceLigue 1
12 AprNice1–1Le HavreLigue 1
04 AprStrasbourg3–1NiceLigue 1
21 MarNice0–4Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
14 MarAngers0–2NiceLigue 1
4Win25%
6Draw38%
6Lost38%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

9 players

Marseille4

✕C. Egan-Riley
Missing FixtureInjury
✕G. Kondogbia
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
✕N. Aguerd
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
✕Q. Timber
QuestionableMuscle Injury

Nice5

✕Dante
Missing FixtureInjury
✕E. Pereira
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
✕M. Abdelmonem
Missing FixtureInjury
✕M. Bombito
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
✕Y. Ndayishimiye
Missing FixtureInjury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Marseille Win1.48 (58.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.44 (61.4%)
Both Teams Score1.56 (59.4%)
●Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.71 (38.6%)
BTTS No2.32 (40.6%)
●Speculative
Draw4.65 (18.9%)
Nice Win5.91 (22.4%)
Marseille vs Nice Predictions, Stats, H2H - 26 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro