Macarthur vs Wellington Phoenix
Macarthur
#9 · A-League
LWWLL
4 - 0
Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney
Referee: L. Keevers
Wellington Phoenix
#7 · A-League
WWWWD
★ OUR PICK
Macarthur to Win
Slight home form and superior underlying numbers over Wellington Phoenix make Macarthur the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.19
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 2.09 for Macarthur to Win. Our model calculates a 43.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Macarthur will face Wellington Phoenix in the A-League at Campbelltown Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Macarthur has a 43.1% probability of winning this match. Wellington Phoenix has a 36.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Wellington Phoenix are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Macarthur43.1%2.09
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564.9%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes65.6%1.41
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.73
13.1%
2-1
8.44
12%
1-2
10.14
10%
2-2
10.38
9.7%
1-0
11.30
8.9%
2-0
12.70
8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.09 | Draw 3.94 | Away 2.99 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.45 | Under 2.61 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.12 | Under 5.54 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.16 | Under 1.67 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.41 | No 2.68 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.36 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.71 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals83.1%
Over 2.5 Goals64.9%
Over 3.5 Goals43.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 45 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Auckland | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 41 | LDDLW |
| 3 |  Adelaide United | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 40 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  Sydney | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 38 | DWDLL |
| 5 |  Melbourne City | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 6 |  Melbourne Victory | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 37 | DDLWW |
| 7 | Wellington Phoenix | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 33 | WLWWW |
| 9 | Macarthur | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 | LLWWL |
| 10 |  Perth Glory | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 | DWDDL |
| 11 |  Brisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 | LDDLD |
| 12 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 21 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonMacarthurWellington Phoenix
1.43Goals p.g.1.57
2.21Goals conceded p.g.1.57
0%Clean sheets29%
21%Win rate43%
3.64Avg goals in match3.14
Recent Results
MacarthurLAST MATCHES
19 AprAdelaide United3–1MacarthurA-League
02 AprMacarthur3–2Newcastle JetsA-League
21 MarAuckland1–2MacarthurA-League
15 MarMelbourne Victory4–1MacarthurA-League
04 MarMacarthur1–3Central Coast MarinersA-League
28 FebMacarthur0–4Western Sydney WanderersA-League
3Win21%
4Draw29%
7Lost50%
LAST MATCHESWellington Phoenix
18 AprWellington Phoenix2–1Western Sydney WanderersA-League
05 AprMelbourne Victory0–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
21 MarBrisbane Roar1–2Wellington PhoenixA-League
14 MarWellington Phoenix2–0Perth GloryA-League
06 MarAdelaide United1–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
01 MarWellington Phoenix0–1SydneyA-League
6Win43%
4Draw29%
4Lost29%
Lineups
ConfirmedMacarthur4-2-3-1Confirmed
32Will McKayDEF
25Callum TalbotDEF
5Matthew JurmanDEF
3Damien Da SilvaDEF
15Mitchell DukeFWD
1Alex RobinsonGK
17Oliver RandazzoMID
24Dean BosnjakMID
10Anthony CaceresMID
8Luke VickeryMID
26Luke BrattanMID
Substitutes
6Tomislav UskokDEF
19Harry PolitidisDEF
35Henrique OliveiraFWD
28Harrison SawyerFWD
11BernardoFWD
12Filip KurtoGK
22Liam RoseMID
Wellington Phoenix4-2-3-1Confirmed
28Bill TuilomaDEF
18Lukas Kelly-HealdDEF
15Isaac HughesDEF
6Tim PayneDEF
7Ifeanyi EzeFWD
1Joshua OluwayemiGK
25Kazuki NagasawaMID
8Paulo RetreMID
3Corban PiperMID
5Fin ConchieMID
16Sander Erik KartumMID
Substitutes
27Matthew SheridanDEF
12Dan EdwardsDEF
29Luke Brooke-SmithFWD
20Ramy NajjarineFWD
11Carlo ArmientoFWD
30Alby Kelly-HealdGK
9Sarpreet SinghMID
Unavailable Players
5 playersMacarthur2
Ji Dong-Won
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
K. Popovic
Missing FixtureInactive
Wellington Phoenix3
A. Rufer
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
N. Walker
Missing FixtureInactive
S. Singh
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.45 (64.9%)
Both Teams Score1.41 (65.6%)
Value Bets
Macarthur Win2.09 (43.1%)
Wellington Phoenix Win2.99 (36.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.61 (35.1%)
BTTS No2.68 (34.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.94 (20.6%)